Nigerians are not stupid by naive. It is bewildering the quantity of affection still squandered on past military leaders, most of whom have refused to vacate the political establishment. This class of political scavengers pose the greatest danger Nigeria's survival as they hammer at the foundation of democracy with unsurpassed vigor and boundless energy.
The military-political class is not a friend of democracy. This class of Nigeria's elite had dominated the leadership for many decades, giving no room for any democratic experiment to succeed as it forced its wishes upon Nigeria through the barrel of the gun. It had always displayed a rabid hatred for democracy and disrespect for the rule of law. For as long as the military could exploit the divisions within the polity, it did. But military in politics became an anathema, thanks to Ibrahim Babangida and Sani Abacha, who employed unbriddled brutality that caused a repugnant taste for military incursions.
From that point, the military politians knew there was only one avenue to power - democracy. They would have to use democracy, in whatever color, shape or mixture - to gain power, from which they could then destroy the philosophy they find so distasteful. So, the military, through Abubakar Abdulsalam, reformed itself, and presented a different form of power grab to Nigerians in the form of General Olusegun Obasanjo and military democracy. Its main elements: representation without power; rights without protection; laws without means of application.
And what do we have as a result? A Senate with four presidents four years later. A House of Representatives with druglords and certificate forgers. Deputy Governors with no high school certificate. Governors chosen by thugs and illiterate politicians. If this is democracy at all, it is a monsterous democracy in all. A demonstration of craziness, as Fela Anikulapo-Kuti would say.
It is not so difficult to understand why Nigeria is currently overheated politically, and stands in the danger of perishing under its fake democratic structure.
Obasanjo continues to demonstrate a lack of respect for the rule of law, for democratic principles and for Nigerians' wishes, as he attempts to extend his rule for however-long, in opposition to the wishes of Nigerians and the expressed dictates of the one-of-a-kind constitution. What is that constitution that Obasanjo should be mindful of it anyway?
It must be remembered that the constitution was drafted in darkness and released in secrecy. In the dying days of the Abubakar regime, Nigerians knew absolutely nothing about how they would be governed, until they were presented with a president who was the choice of military officers who had met also in darkness to decide how to and who should rule Nigeria.
The democratic structures were designed by the military to further its own lust for perpetual power, but the generally imbecile political class was romanced to give an illusion of reality to the political statue carved in Minna.
The make-believe political edifice is now falling apart, not because it was not well designed with mischief as the principle, but because its own strength is paradoxically its weakness too. The power of agreement in the military-political class is based on the realization that all the parties had a common goal and future; nonetheless it took little cognisanze of greed, betrayal and ambition, the very ingredients of military coups that had been waged for some decades.
Obasanjo was the most trusted military general to begin the experiment by the military-political class to rule Nigeria for ever. The man, who had vacated power voluntarily in 1979 to the surprise of pundits, had always seemed reluctant to be in power, and was a friend of the northern political elite, who mistrusted most other southern leaders deeply. Obasanjo had also been busy working with other world leaders such as the former US President, Jimmy Carter, to ensure that democratic structures are established in the developing nations of the world. This resume guaranteed Obasanjo the first taste of power, after which the likes of Babangida, Buhari, Marwa, Ogbeha, Mark, Kotangora and others were expected to follow. In fact, there was a long queue waiting.
But since Obasanjo decided to be what he had not been known to be, a carefully chiselled plan is in trouble, and so is Nigeria.
Needless to say, Nigerians themselves are to blame for this political problem. A golden opportunity to be free once and for all was not seized nationwide in 1993 and 1995 during the Babangida and Abacha years. There were sporadic protests after the annulment of the June 12 elections won by MKO Abiola, but the whole nation was not united, and the military immediately seized the opportunity by turning politicians against each other and moving heavily against the civil groups that had formed an almost effective opposition. To say, however, that the impoverished public was to blame for the political hijack would not be entirely true.
The political class has always been too weak to put up a meaningful fight for its own relevance. Greed, corruption, ethnic division and lack of an intellectual preparation had always been the bane of the politicians. They are always too busy looking for crumbs from the master's table. The proud, intelligent, principled and formidable members of the political class are too infinitesimal to have an impact in the poltical process. What can somebody like Gani Fawehinmi or Balarabe Musa do when in the face of heavily-funded political machine of Babangida? The plain truth is that civilian politicians are far too weakened and fragmented to put up a sufficient struggle. They cannot be relied on.
Even before the release of Obasanjo 2.0, most discerning Nigerians knew the general could not be trusted that much, especially in the West, which understandably did not vote him to power, at least in the first term. Obasanjo is a northern concortion, resulting from the fear of June 12 and the need to neutralize its effect. This is, of course, an over-simplication of the problem. The real issue is that the military, not the northerners, decided to entrust the nation into Obasanjo's hands. Ibrahim Babangida is the one who sponsored Obasanjo to power, and we all know the closeness between Abudulsalam and IBB.
In his book, Just Before Dawn, Dr. Kole Omotoso, introduced us to how power was designed to change from politicians to soldiers, especially from the north, just before independence. Nothing that is happening in Nigeria's political life now is an accident, as almost everything had been pre-determined to happen exactly so by the colonial power. The military was not set up to be surbservient to the politicians but to rule over it. An Abacha could not have been obedient to a Shonekan for too long. It was absolutely stupid to think the contrary would happen, and Babangida knew this fact when he made Abacha, Shonekan's little boy. He knew the cat could not be made a servant to the mouse. The military's natural instinct to govern was, and still is, the greatest political problem in Nigeria today.
This point was highlighted by Professor Wole Soyinka, when asked about Babangida's recent decision to challenge Obasanjo for the presidency. Said Soyinka: “The musical chairs being played by the military, let us make up our minds not to dance to this thing. Enough is enough. We are being insulted. Right, left and centre. What is it? People shoot their way to power, accumulating masses and masses and masses of resources through illegal means and using the assets to come and dominate our lives all over again."
All Nigerians must begin to see their problem from only one angle - the military class. Any other appraisal of the problem will be illusional and diversionary. The catastrophe which began with the first military coup in the mid-60s must be ended for Nigeria to make any serious progress. Military incursion in politics - either in uniform or out of it - is fatal.
Nigeria is on the brink of death, no matter how much we wish it wouldn't happen. Some ordinary Nigerians are beginning to sense danger and starting to stash away money in case all hell is let loose in 2007. There is danger on the horizon, and it is that of a power struggle between the military generals with some rich politicians in-between.
With the president and his deputy openly embroiled in a battle for power, and the other generals angling for a way to get into Aso Rock, only God can save Nigeria. The foreign media is beginning to take interest in the impending calamity in Nigeria. The New York Times and even local newspapers such as the Beaver Times in Pennsylvania, the United States, have written editorials flagging down the international community to the ticking bomb called Nigeria.
The ethnical militia in the West, Niger Delta and the East are also adding fuel to a waiting implosion.
The 2007 election may mark the end of Nigeria as we know it. The matter is far more serious than we like to think. The military is at the center of it, but other factors will contribute to the nation's probable demise, as has been predicted by the United States' intelligence report. The end may come sooner than even predited.
The change of power in 2007 may mark the begining of the end. Evil as he is, even Babangida is begging Obasanjo not to stay, knowing the risk of a political battle among the generals. Gani Fawehinmi, naturally confrontational, also begged Obasanjo to go away quietly. How can IBB and Gani, his professed enemy, be saying the same thing? Hey, something is going on here!
What is at stake is Nigeria's resources, which the military wants to lay hold of perpetually. There is a great conflict for power - not really, but the loot it offers - and it lies within the military class, with some politicians adding fuel to the fire. Nigerians need to rise now, before the evil day comes. The military politicians must be neutralized by public action before they do harm to the polity.
What is at stake is Nigeria's resources, which the military wants to lay hold of perpetually. There is a great conflict for power - not really, but the loot it offers - and it lies within the military class, with some politicians adding fuel to the fire. Nigerians need to rise now, before the evil day comes. The military politicians must be neutralized by public action before they do harm to the polity.
