Most analysts had thought that former dictator, Ibrahim Babangida, had given up his ambition to rule Nigeria again. The non-relenting energy of his former senior, General Olusegun Obasanjo, who is still very much interested in his present job as president, seemed to have dashed the hopes of the Babangida die-hards.It was, therefore, a surprise when in March, 2006, years after incessant speculation, the former dictator removed the veil and announce the intention to view for the nation's top post.
What is striking about IBB's declaration in a nationally-publicized but carefully-granted interview is that he called himself a political animal, for the very first time. This admission, is frightening, as much as revealing. Asked why it is difficult for him to come out openly about his poltical ambition, he said: "It's not difficult, but it's dangerous because I'm a political animal. Okay, why don't I tell you this? If I get the nomination of my party, I'll run."
So, Babangida will run.
Analysts find it difficult to believe he will run because, unlike other opponents of the Obasanjo regime, IBB has been silent on the third term, and has not actually campaigned nor participated in real politics. He has never attended meetings of his PDP party, nor see attending strictly political events at the grassroots. All he has to show for his politicking is a band of errand boys like Alex Akinyele blarring messages purportedly issued from Babangida.
Besides, Babangida has not summoned the courage to come out clearly to oppose Obasanjo's policies, even when they are clearly targeted against him. He continues to hold secret meetings with Obasanjo, and gives a public impression there are no major differences between them.
It is clearly possible there is something going on between the two rulers that is being hidden from Nigerians. The military has a ruling carbal, of which the two are deeply embedded. There are strategic items that must remind all there is more that unites them than divides. Take the case of the Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammed Abdullahi and the National Security Adviser to the President, Major General Aliyu Muhammed Gausau. They are close confidants of Babangida holding the most sensitive positions, and they have not lost their jobs. So what is the noise all about?
IBB may, for all you care, be interested only in continual relevance in national affairs. But if it is really true that IBB is interested in going back to Aso Rock, just imagine the horror!
Most Nigerians who support him want to believe that Babangida is repentant and will come back to redeem his image. Of late, IBB, smart as ever, has been calling MKO Abiola and Dele Giwa, two prominent citizens who died as a result of his brutal decisions, his friend. Babangida has also been spending money to woo politicians, academics and even Nigerians in the Diaspora.
He knows how difficult it would be to carry most people along, but he wants to carry as many as he could buy or convince to believe he is a changed man, ready to atone for his sins.
Let no one underestimate the evil genious - he is capable of unseating Obasanjo, and he has already boasted he could. "It has never happened but it could happen. This time, the Nigerian will be wiser," Babangida remarked in the interview, but he could have meant this time Nigerians will be really duped.
Many of the members of the political class, including governors, senators, representative and assemblymen were directly sponsored by IBB, and they owe allegience to him, not the electorate. Since the military-induced democratic experiment of General Abdulsalami Abubakar, his close confidant, Babangida had been busy recruiting policians with the general expectation that they would be useful at the right time. It may now be time for him to use his resources.
The ability to anticipate and directly influence national affairs may, in fact, have been his greatest weapon. No government has been able to operate outside of Babangida's sphere of influence since after the civil war.
He insinuated his ability to stop Obasanjo's manipulation of the constitution, saying that the President will at the end of the day will not have enough votes to achieve his objective.
His words: "It's wrong even to conclude that it is a reality. I mean, just yesterday (Tuesday), one paper came out with the figure; 40 for, 40 against, then the rest undecided or thereabout. Now, as far as I'm concerned, if those who fight against elongation are 40 in the Senate, then the game is lost. You need two-thirds of 109 and if 40 say no, then it becomes no. I'm very worried by what you (media) are dishing out and I think they are objective and factual from my interactions, trying to confirm some of these things. I think we unnecessarily get scared over some of these things."
What is Babangida saying here? I have the votes, not Obasanjo, he is telling the nation. He had planted his men in the legislative houses, and he is just waiting for Obasanjo to meet his waterloo. Vice President Abubakar Atiku, who has lately been very friendly with Babangida, gave the same intepretation. He said everyone should watch the numbers and not be fearful. According to Atiku, if the numbers change, that is when you can entertain any fear.
Babangida is serious about his ambition. His billboards mounted in various parts of the country were not erected as a joke. They were meant to sell his comeback bid.
There is bound to come a time when IBB and OBJ must fight openly. General Obasanjo knows he could not fight General Babangida easily, but has kept his strategies to himself. It is apparent while both dicators have been talking, they have not had any specific agreement on the third term because it was not on their contract of agreement at the outset. However, they have both kept their respective strategies secret.
It may not be contentious to predict that at a point, Obasanjo will use the power of state brutally against his opponent and arrest Babangida. However, that may not happen until less-threatening opponents, such as Atiku, are in the kitty. When Obasanjo and Babangida begin to slug it out, it might be at the tail end of Nigeria's existence.
