Olawale Rasheed
"Being so sandwiched, it is not Babangida that is at a crossroad; ditto for Abubakar, Buhari. If Yar’Adua emerges in PDP, will Babangida not have the same moral burden in running against him?"
THE Babangida factor is an undeniable one within the polity and his actions, loud or silent, are not lost on all stakeholders including the president of the Republic. Few days to the presidential primaries of the ruling party, the Minna big masquerade has played a big but predicted game.
The day the General took the PDP nomination form, many had wasted papers and pens analysing how his entrance would alter the race for the PDP ticket. Few discovered that the show put up at Wadata that day was only a game, part of the long drawn chess play among the powerful.
Reading the General’s lips that day, it was clear he was only testing waters. His desire was to avoid being seen as confronting his former boss, General Obasanjo. By picking the PDP form, he was fulfilling all righteousness, testing whether truly Mr. President had any intention of handing over to him. This week, the result of the test came out and the General is back to plan A. Joining the PDP is only plan B, his aides will affirm.
What is interesting is the many angles surrounding the exit of the General from the race. As if many still do not understand the Minna Hill Top mogul, nobody expected IBB to contest in a primary. Envisaging his appearing before a screening panel is a clear misinterpretation of the man.
The myth that is called IBB cannot and should not be subjected to a demystification process which the PDP politics presently represents. Long before now, what the General intended doing was to secure a platform to make himself available to Nigerians. The strategy is that victory is a possibility as the name still has meaning to so many.
That explains why the National Democratic Party (NDP) was formed with a clause in its constitution that allows the party’s national executive committee to adopt a presidential candidate without a presidential primaries. The same thing applies to the United Nigeria Peoples Party (UNPP) whose constitution was almost like that of the NDP except that a national convention will now be held to ratify the anointed candidate.
The long and short of it is that there is a ready-made platform awaiting him. What is to be done is for his allies to simply cross over to the adopted party and mobilise ahead of the general elections. The issue is not whether the man will win or not at the poll.
Within the General’s camp, the calculation is that if a successful return to power of ex-leaders is possible in other countries, Nigeria cannot be an exception. Allan Garcia of Peru and Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua are often cited. Whether Babangida can become a Garcia of Nigeria is a different ballgame.
The drama surrounding the General’s exit reveals certain reality about the ruling class. There is a developing lineage of power wielders; there is an apparent continuity of a chain of leaders and sons of leaders; there is a linkage somewhere between military and civilian leaders. There was a story that the First Republic minister, Musa Yar’Adua, got both his son, late General Sheu Yar’Adua and General Muhammadu Buhari enlisted in the Army the same day.
General Babangida has added another angle by linking his own beginning with that of this same late Yar’Adua, a politician known to be a major link within the Ahmadu Bello political caucus. The Minna group now talks of the adoptive sonship if one is to borrow Mr. President’s description of the relationship between Babangida and late Yar’Adua, a politician known to be a major link within the Ahmadu Bello political caucus.
The implication is clear. Governor Umar Yar’Adua is a product of a powerful political and military family. The governor is the son of an Ahmadu Bello associate and the brother of a General Yar’Adua, an acknowledged military and political strategist. IBB is conscious of the consequences of being seen to be duelling for a ticket with the governor who is now the scion of the Yar’Adua family.
The same thing applies to the former National Security Adviser, General Aliu Mohammed Gusau. Gusau, unknown to many analysts and even Nigerians, is a tough leader created within a weak looking bodily frame. Governor Yar’Adua is of the same quality. What marks Gusau out is that worldwide, he is an acknowleged intelligence expert in sub-Saharan Africa. That probably explains why he talks less and why he is rarely seen.
General Babangida has a fraternal affiliation with Gusau. That same linkage exists with Mr. President, General Abdulsalami Abubakar and General Theophilus Danjuma. No matter the closeness within the fraternal family, certain red lines probably exist and as was aptly described by an observer, this is Babangida’s time to step aside for his man, Gusau. When Babangida was slow in taking that initiative, General Gusau stepped in, purchasing the nomination form even when he knew Babangida had indicated interest.
Beyond that interlocking relationship, there is another level of perception. There is a group called G3, having as members Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, General Muhammadu Buhari and General Babangida. The three are united in their disdain for the president’s transition agenda, the Otta farmer’s resolve not to hand over power to either of them despite their role in making the president in 1999.
A member of the group recently narrated a story. Can you still claim to know the president? That question was said to have been posed at Babangida who reportedly remained speechless. General Buhari was said to have volunteered an answer that “we thought we knew him.” Chief Richard Akinjide and Dr. Alex Ekwueme were the two being considered in 1999 before Gusau as an emissary of IBB, Abdulsalami and Danjuma, prevailed on the political wing led by Vice-President Abubakar to support it not possible for the three to back one of them, a thought that is producing speculations about the possibility of a joint presidential ticket by both the ANPP and the AC.
Whatever IBB decides, the fact from recent happenings is that there is an implosion of the power cabal. For the first time since independence, the ruling elite are dead set to poison each other. One of them is building his empire; he believes the old structures should be pulled down. This much was extensively analysed in a separate piece: ‘The Obasanjo phenomenon’, Nigerian Tribune Dec. 4, 2006 edition.
Being so sandwiched, it is not Babangida that is at a crossroad; ditto for Abubakar, Buhari. If Yar’Adua emerges in PDP, will Babangida not have the same moral burden in running against him?
