The CIA report that Nigeria may disintegrate in 13 years is being corroborated by another one, this time from the World Bank, which added 14 countries to its list of nations at risk of collapse, including Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer.
The number of so-called fragile states rose to 26 in 2006 from 17 three years ago, the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank said in a report released in Singapore today. They now include East Timor, Cambodia and Kosovo.
According to the report, Nigeria was added because of an increase in corruption and deteriorating governance.
According to the report, Nigeria was added because of an increase in corruption and deteriorating governance.
The continuing political crisis in which the president and vice president are locked in heated corruption allegations against each other, with each preparing a league of attorneys, illustrates the level of instability in Nigeria's political system.
Also instructive is the sudden firing of respected officials ostensibly for political reasons, a trend that has cast doubts about Nigeria's investment climate among international investors. For instance, the respected Finance Minister, Mrs. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has left Nigeria, aftler losing out in a power tussle that caused her to tender a resignation letter suddenly.
Besides, there have been continuing terrorist activities leading to incessant kidnapping of oil workers in the Niger Delta region. Ethnic militia have also increased in number, with major leaders of those groups now detained by the government
All these erode confidence in Nigeria's abilitiy to remain as one, in spite of repeated assurances by Nigeria's officials.
``If something new happens in oil-producing states like Angola, it could push up the price of oil,'' said Tetsu Emori, the chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures Ltd. in Tokyo. ``A production decline in Nigeria will also affect oil prices although the violence in that country is already priced in.''
The potential failure of countries including Nigeria and Angola, China's biggest oil supplier this year, threatens to boost energy and commodities prices and slow economic growth. Oil has fallen 19 percent since reaching a record $78.40 on July 14. The group is also concerned that terrorism, drug production and weapon smuggling are spiraling.
``Neglecting the fragile states, half of whom are living in extreme poverty, risks a worsening of their misery,'' said Vinod Thomas, the group's director general. That in turn will feed ``regional and global instability.''
The group, which reports to the World Bank's board of executive directors rather than President Paul Wolfowitz, defines fragile states as low-income nations that score three or less on a scale of one to six measuring economic policies, social equality and public-sector management.
War, Diamonds
Angola, the world's third-largest diamond producer in 2003, is emerging from civil war. Half a million people were killed in battles that began after the African nation gained independence from Portugal in 1975. In the Republic of Congo, which earns more than half its income from oil, about 4 million people died, mostly from disease and starvation, during two civil wars between 1996 and 2002.
``There could be large global spillovers if they don't do well,'' Soniya Carvalho, lead author of ``Engaging with Fragile States: An IEG Review of World Bank Support to Low-Income Countries Under Stress,'' said in an interview. ``They could become hotbeds of terrorist activity because there are large ungoverned areas. The imperative to do something in fragile states is very great.''
Donors Balk
Donors don't want to spend money in such countries because their governments don't have the capacity to use the funds effectively to reduce poverty, according to the report.
The World Bank, which has lent $4.1 billion to the fragile states in the past two years, and other donors need to boost investment in developing local expertise after conflicts, Carvalho said. In East Timor donors may have pulled out too quickly, she said.
Civil unrest erupted in March in East Timor, which is about 500 kilometers (311 miles) north of Australia, after former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri dismissed 600 soldiers for deserting. Clashes between security forces escalated into fighting between armed gangs, killing 37 people and forcing 155,000 people from their homes.
Timor's share of oil and gas reserves in the Timor Sea is about $10 billion according to the Australian government. Half the population lacks safe drinking water. About 60 out of 1,000 infants die before their first birthday and life expectancy is just over 55, according to a United Nations report in March.
`Pet Areas'
Governments in countries such as Afghanistan are also burdened with too much legislation pushed by donors without prioritization. Afghanistan has to pass 120 new laws, according to the report.
``Each donor has their pet areas and they support those and want changes to be made, but it adds up to a very formidable program,'' Carvalho said. ``This kind of overload is quite killing.''
Other fragile states include the Central African Republic, which has diamond, uranium, gold and oil deposits, Comoros, Cote d'Ivoire, Eritrea, Guinea, Kosovo, the Solomon Islands, Togo, Vanuatu, West Bank and Gaza, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Laos, Liberia, Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe.
Download full report: Engaging with Fragile States
