NEWS ANALYSIS: When the formidable stature of General Ibrahim Babangida shrank, only weeks after thousands of supposed supporters went to collect the PDP nomination form with him, the reasons he gave for his sudden withdrawal were ludicrous. The quick capitulation of the former dictator before a PDP panel that was set up to question his past, in spite of his excuses, proves that Babangida is still afraid of being probed.
Just as he avoided questioning before the Oputa Commission in the early days of the current administration, General Babangida ran again from the party where he made such a great show of his candidacy, because his evil deeds are finally beginning to reflect on his life, nay future. Babangida wil always be on the run, as long as he refuses to challenge his past and come face-to-face with Nigerians.
Babangida said he was faced with "a moral dilemma" of contesting against the Governor of Katsina State, Mr. Umaru Yar’Adua, as well as former National Security Adviser, General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau. If Nigerians are to believe the dictator, it is his (Babangida’s) close relationship with the Yar’Adua family and Gusau that led him to leave the PDP.
The media and pundits have yet to call Babangida's statement into question, which shows the extent to which the dictator is not held closely accountable for his pronouncements and deeds, and continues thereby to take Nigerians for morons.
If Babangida truly withdrew from the PDP presidential race because of these two persons, then he must answer further questions.
The candidates to whom Babangida claims he is showing deference, Governor Umaru Yar’Adua, and General Aliyu Gusau picked up their nomination forms after him. If they are really as close as Babangida has claimed, was there any consultation among these people before each picked up his form? One would expect that since the Yar'aduas are almost family, there would have been long discussions and agreements, and Babangida would have negotiated with Umaru, rather than face the shame of a quick withdrawal from the race. Similarly, an acquintance and confidant of 40 years such as Gusau would certainly have discussed with Babangida long before they both picked their forms. Gusau had been widely reported to be nursing the presidential ambition, certainly within the PDP, and one wonders why he never discussed his dream to be president with IBB. Except Babangida is lying.
Another question that begs to be asked is why deference is going from Babangida to those who have lower status, affluence, influence and are younger than him. Shouldn't deference have travelled the other way? In any traditional African setting, it would normally be expected that it is Yar'adua and Gusau who should withdraw as a sign of respect to Babangida's seniority in everything. It makes Babangida's excuse ridiculous and senseless.
Thirdly, Babangida's announcement of withdrawal on the eve of the PDP's screening exercise is more than a coincidence. Even if the excuse was right, the timing is so suspicious no one can rationally believe the Evil Genius.
More importantly, since IBB has not really dropped out of the presidential race and would likely contest through another party, would he defer again if he were to meet Yar'adua or Gusau? What tactical achievement has he made by withdrawing from the PDP now, and not the race entirely?
It is also significant to ask Babangida at this time why he treated General Shehu Musa Yar'adua so shabbily when the late Chief of Staff attempted to contest the presidential election under Babangida's tortuous transition to civil rule that ended nowhere. Musa Yar'adua, who had formed the People's Front of Nigeria, the platform upon which Vice President Abubakar Atiku's political weight now rests, was wickedly halted by Babangida in 1992 when it was obvious Yar'adua was headed for a resounding victory. Of the same Musa Yar'adua, who died uncelebrated in the hands of General Sani Abacha, Babangida now says he had a deep commitment of protection. If all those family connections and promises existed, what have Nigerians missed when Babangida atrociously banned Yar'adua from becoming president in 1992?
Said Babangida: “Those who know me know my relationship with the Yar’Adua family. The patriarch, Alhaji Musa Yar’Adua, took me as his adopted son with his son, the late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua and instilled in late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua and me that nothing should be done by either of us that would give the impression that there is a strain in our relationship.
“To me, this extends to his younger brother, Alhaji Umar Yar’Adua, who I take as my younger brother. Whenever I see him, I see the late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua and I am always reminded of what his late father told us about our relationship.
“As for General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, by March 2007, it will be 40 years of close, intense, harmonious relationship extending to our immediate and extended families.
“He, too, came to see me to ask for my support as soon as he collected his form even though he knew I had already collected mine. Out of abiding mutual loyalty, he knew when I said, ‘you have my support,’ that I wanted it to be so,” part of his letter of withdawal to the PDP read.
It should now be assumed by Nigerians that if Babangida emerges as NDP's presidential flagbearer, and he is bound to, and he faces Gusau or Umaru Yar'adua in a national election, he would withdraw just like that.
It is obvious that IBB is lying again, as he characteristically does, in order to cover up and avoid scrutiny.
The PDP was poised to eliminate him and he knew. In fact, it had been rumored that President Olusegun Obasanjo himself had met with IBB, advising Babangida to withdraw voluntarily. Long before that meeting, the PDP had set the barricade to stop the Evil Genius. It came up with some prerequisites, which ostensibly targeted Babangida as the hurdles were too high for him to cross.
The Nigeria Tribune reported, however, that the Peoples Democratic Party's plan to use the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) in the screening of the presidential aspirants was the final death knell on IBB's dream within the PDP.
The dictator is also reported to have considered the utterances of some leading members of the president’s economic team, particularly that of the Federal Capital Territory Minister, Mr. Nasir el-Rufai, who said in the United States that there was no room for looters like Babangida in the PDP and the presidential race.
It was obvious to Babangida that there was a plan to humiliate him through the screening. The EFCC chairman, Nuhu Ribadu, had before warned the former military ruler that President Obasanjo would not hand over to corrupt generals like Babangida.
If IBB had been disqualified by the PDP through the screening, it would have been a nail on his political coffin, as it would have ruined his (IBB’s) chances of running for the presidency in another party.
The truth, rather than Babangida's lies, was exposed by one of his cohorts who told Nigerian Tribune that, “We never believed in the PDP as a platform. So, this is a tactical withdrawal, but we are still in the race for the presidency."
Babangida is now likely to pitch his tent with the parties that he had originially plotted to use and parties which he used his money to form. The political parties include the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP), the National Democratic Party (NDP) and the United Nigeria Peoples Party (UNPP). Those were his backup plan.
The Maradona is expected to emerge as a candidate of one or all of these political party without passing through any party primaries and without facing the humiliation of being screened by his surbordinates in the army and without facing the EFCC.
The EFCC may still go after Babangida though. The presidency knows there is a quiet declaration of war against the Obasanjo administration. The extent to which Babangida will vent his venom is yet unknown. However, in Nigeria, power is absolute. If absolute power is exercised, Babangida may be brought to book for his past crimes if he does not tread gently.
