THAT Governor Umar Yar’Adua is likely to emerge as the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has been in the news for some times now.
Being largely taciturn and publicity shy, little is known of the man after ruling a state for close to eight years. Of all the 36 states governors from 1999 till date, Yar’Adua remains the most unknown, such that when the presidential race kicks off, many are just groping around for facts about the man’s antecedents.
That relative obscurity led to misinterpretation of the man by many analysts. And because of not being in the public sphere intimately, political opponents are feasting on that deficiency. This has produced a lot of insinuations and near blackmail.
Worst still, the governor did not put up any campaign organisation. That complicates the task of anybody hoping to exhaustively analyses his candidature in the light of the many variables in the race. Yar’Adua Campaign strategy is even more secretive than that of General Aliu Gusau, leading to near confirmation that the scion of the Yar’Adua family is indeed the candidate of the presidency and the party leadership.
Even when little is known about the man, certain insinuations are however far from the truth. The governor’s sudden emergence has attracted a lot of envy, while the apparent love of the state for him, despite joining the race late, has worsened the anger of those who feel cheated by the power play. The result is the heightening of propaganda warfare.
One thing is clear. Governor Yar’Adua is an epitome of integrity and transparency. Those who have one encounter or the other with him in Katsina before now will tell you that the man is a stickler for honesty and accountability. That is probably the reason why Katsina is not a popular place for contractors.
It is on record that the man is considered more frugal and more stingy than Mr. President who has been Jocularly called the Managing Director of Nigeria Aradite Bank. Those rooting for him are convinced that only a candidate of integrity like him can consolidate on the anticorruption war and the multiple economic reforms of the Obasanjos administration. This quality Yar’Adua possesses and it cannot be denied no matter the intensity of propaganda.
The other issue has to do with whether he is a man of courage or not. For one, no weakling can rule a state successfully for two terms. This is not even possible in Katsina state, an enclave known for its turbulent politicising. That Yar’Adua won the 2003 re-election for whatever reasons is a clear confirmation that somewhere in that gentle physical frame is a very hard offensive and defensive spirit.
Just consider how he successfully produced his preferred aspirant for the gubernatorial candidacy of the PDP, Alhaji Ibrahim Shema who is also the National Deputy Chairman of the PDP for North. Again, with one’s knowledge of Northern politics, a weakling cannot easily tame the Number Four citizen of the Federation, House Speaker, Aminu Bello Masari, and other powerful politicians like former Internal Affairs minister Ambassador Abubakar Magaji.
There is the issue of whether he can sustain his reign even if he is elected a president. This was my own fear before a top administration official reminded me of where the governor is coming from. Being the son of a former first Republic Minister who played prominent roles in getting so many Northerners into the army and being the blood brother of a former Chief of staff, Supreme Headquarters during Obasanjo first rulership as a military Head of state, the calculation is that the governor has a support base to sustain his rulership.
Beside the above, some commentators are already likening the emerging scenario to the Shagari phenomenon of 1979. As closely related as the two cases look, Yar’Adua is evidently not a reluctant “president.” Right from last year, those close to Katsina politics would confirm that the Governor has an ambition which was not clearly articulated at least to his associates.
In the usual tradition of the Yar’Adua family, the exact direction of the ambition though not voiced out was being strategically worked out in detail. The first step noticeable in the last two years or so was the governor’s gradual withdrawal from direct association with the vice-president. Many attributed this to the war in the presidency but it was rather a tactical preparation.
Those who called Yar’Adua a reluctant aspirant should ask themselves why Shema was picked as the Deputy Chairman North after the sack of Audu Ogbeh executive. Shema now the gubernatorial candidate of Katsina state chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was then the Attorney General of Katsina state.
If the governor was so reluctant, unambitious and even ignorant as his critics are portraying him, how come he outsmarted others including the Kaduna State governor, Ahmed Makarfi to get Shema, his candidate elected or appointed as the PDP Deputy Chairman? The question may further be asked why Yar’ Adua is interested in clinching that top post for his close ally if he has nothing up his sleeves as being suggested?
And is it possible for Yar’ Adua to get Shema into that plume Office without the approval of the presidency? The reality is that Shema’s appointment was for a purpose of preparing the ground at the national level for Yar’Adua’s eventual entrance into the presidential race. This of course with the full blessing of Mr. President. Governor Yar’Adua is a prepared contender for the presidential race.
The above produces the theory that Yar’Adua has for long being the annointed candidate of Mr. President who is shielded from the prying eyes of Political watchers. Coming out late is part of denying the fact that the governor has been fully prepared for the challenges ahead.
Again, this is not a Shagari - type transition for another reason. While not embarking on comparative analysis, ex-President Shehu Shagari and Governor Yar’Adua Shehu no quality except in the area of humility and godliness. Late General Yar’Adua looks simple but records showthat he is a resilient fighter both in war and politics. The patriach of the Yar’Adua family, late Musa Yar’ Adua is said to be similarly simple but focussed and determined.
The PDP convention today should face up with the reality that before them is an aspirant that can be daring and courageous during emergencies and as compliant with due process with firmness during peace time. If anybody considers Yar’Adua a pliable instrument, that is in reality a wrong judgement which may also undermine the ability of his opponents to tackle him.
The Preceeding is not to support imposition of candidates in the guise of consensus. It is also not an endorsement of any of the aspirants slugging it out today at Abacha built Eagle Square. Rather, the intention is to shed light on how wrong analysis of an opponent can produce costly electoral loss either at primary or general election. Those battling Yar’Adua with the mindset that a weakling is in the ring may find out too late that a strong opponent of unexpected fierceness is what awaits them.
In any case, the delegates are just going in; Eagle Square is wearing the usual new look and the results may not be known until early in the morning tomorrow. Will Yar’Adua emerge? Just wait For about 12 or 15 hours from now.
But it will be wrong to conclude that whoever emerges today will automatically clinch the Nigerian presidency next year. Any such declaration will amount to a deceitful assumption oblivious of the fact that PDP of today is troubled by mounting external foes and an increasing web of Fifth Columnists. The party is bleeding both from Previous brushes and new ones that are likely to be inflicted today.
Incidentally, the President recently acknowledged this reality. Interpretatively, today is the beginning of a long drawn battle for the PDP to reclaim its expiring mandate. The road is going to be tortuous as any reliance on power of incumbency can backfire and even boomerang. If Governor Yar’ Adua eventually emerges, a straight battle may thus ensued involving him and friends of his late brother, General Muhammadu Buhari and Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.
The Yar’Adua candidacy is today the issue in PDP politics. Whether this can earn the party a Presidential Victory is a prediction whose time has not come.
