Now, Babangida Hustles

The Ibori group which, to a large extent, financed the election, and

Yar’Adua loyalists led by Tanimu who was the director general of Yar’Adua campaign team.

The race among the six groups now has become swifter following the December 8 announcement of the national convention of the ruling party.

The chairmanship has been zoned to the South-East and all the known aspirants in the race to succeed Dr. Ahmadu Ali – Chief Benjamin Apugo, Dr. Sam Egwu, Senator Ken Nnamani, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim and Chief Vincent Ogbulafor – are battling to get the attention and backing of, at least, five of the groups.

It is the group that has the widest network, militarily, economically and politically.

The arrowhead was head of state between August 27, 1985 and August 26, 1993. General Babangida left office ignominiously following the national outcry that followed his annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election won by the late billionaire Chief M.K.O. Abiola.

Although Babangida signalled his intention to succeed Obasanjo last year, he later chickened out when he saw that his former commander-in-chief was not ready to hand over to him.

A student of history, he knew that Obasanjo was like a moving train, ready to crush any opposition in his determination to install Yar’Adua.

Since then, he has been healing his political wound, waiting for an opportune time which has presented itself now.

gathered that in this power show, Babangida is yet to be in serious contention because of the obvious ‘non-fixing of his loyalists in key areas of government’.

Now, Babangida is battling hard to reduce the influence of those he believes may block him in his determination to, once again, rise to political reckoning.

The strategy of this group is that Yar’Adua should be ‘patched on’ to, at least, spend one term in office before hijacking power from him.

The ‘grand plan’ is to ensure that the President is not allowed to perform to the extent that Nigerians will be yearning for his re-election in 2011.

In the build-up to the next election, the northern establishment will be mobilized to force Yar’Adua to step down and allow another Northerner to step in.

The thinking is that since it is still the slot of the North for another term, there will be no serious opposition from the South but the ‘plot within a plot’ is that whoever emerges will stay on till 2019 since he is constitutionally allowed to vie for another term, disregarding the geo-political consideration.

A minus for Babangida in this regard is that age will no longer be on his side since he will be close to 70 in the next election.

So, the ‘Plan B’ is to look for a loyalist within the group to be given the ticket.

Interestingly, former National Security Adviser (NSA) General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau is being considered.

And the first step is to bring him back to government.

A source said that there is a serious push for Gusau – one of Yar’adua’s challengers during the PDP convention – to come back to Aso Rock - a terrain he knows very well - to replace General Mohammed as Chief of Staff.

How this will be done is not known for now but the source said the strategists are waiting for the expiration of Mohammed’s renewed COS position in December to ‘move in’.

A serious opposition is coming from the Mohammed group backed by Obasanjo to ensure that this move is consigned to the realm of fantasy.

That was why Mohammed, who was initially billed to stay for three months and actually went on leave preparatory to his leaving Aso Rock, came back to assume the position he has occupied since 1999.

Another opposition is coming from the Mark group, seen as one of the main backers of the Yar’Adua presidency.

How Babangida will battle these foes is not known for now but it is believed the erstwhile commander-in-chief is not known for giving up a fight easily like that.

A source said even if Gusau will not be acceptable to some northern conservatives who wield enormous power, a search is on-going to bring on board an acceptable candidate, once the power brokers are convinced that Yar’Adua must step down for another northerner.

Now, this group is making a serious incursion into the camps of former Defence Minister General Theophilus Danjuma, former Information Minister Prof. Jerry Gana and others who are opposed to Obasanjo and, at the same time, not too close to Atiku.

It is believed that this group is also giving indirect support to those after the Speaker of the House of Representatives Mrs Olubunmi Etteh, "just to whittle down the influence of Obasanjo in the Yar’Adua administration".

Obviously, it is the most powerful of all the groups, at least for now.

General Abdullahi Mohammed is an experienced old hand. He is one of the remaining retired military officers holding a sensitive powerful position.

The former military governor of defunct Benue/Plateau State was director of the defunct National Security Organisation (NSO) when Obasanjo was head of state in the 70s.

He was also the National Security Adviser to General Abdulsalami Abubakar, and later Obasanjo’s CSO, a position he is still holding till date.

For now, he is the stabilizing force in the administration. Not really for politicking, he is not the loud type but concerns himself with security matters, very key to the existence of any government.

He has built a powerful ring around himself, very difficult to penetrate by ‘ambitious outsiders’

An intelligence officer, he has also succeeded in fixing people in key government positions, in the process building a network of loyalists.

The National Security Adviser (NSA) General Mohammed Mukhtar is also in his group.

Also in the powerful group is the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Aliyu Modibbo Umar.

Modibbo, the Gombe-born strategist, is one of the young turks on the field with the mandate to ‘neutralise with fiat’ any perceived threat to the interest of the President and the group.

Modibbo was a special assistant in the Villa during the regime of the late General Sani Abacha and he was the only one brought back as one of the SAS working in the COS office during the Obasanjo administration.

He later became a minister.

It was no accident that when Yar’Adua was about to resume, Modibbo was tipped as Mohammed’s replacement.

He was later given the FCT portfolio.

Minister of Housing and Environment Halimat Alao, the Executive Secretary of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF), SSA Political to Obasanjo and now Yaar’Adua Dr. Gbolade Osinowo and others are also members of this group.

In fact, the group was instrumental to the appointment of one of the most visible aides of Yar’Adua, said the source.

"They don’t exercise power overtly so that you don’t know", he said.

He said whether the President will re-contest or not does not bother the Mohammed group "but what is central to their existence is continue to protect Yar’Adua and consolidate their hold on power".

What brought about this group was the need to resist the dictatorial tendencies of Obasanjo at the inception of the Yar’Adua administration.

The strategy was to bring somebody from the North-East ‘who has the weight of Atiku’

Now, Alhaji Babagana Kingibe, former national chairman of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP), former Internal and External Affairs minister and Yar’Adua’s SGF is the arrowhead of the group.

When Kingibe started, he tried to revive the PDM/SDP structure which Obasanjo later resisted.

With Kingibe are two power brokers who cannot be said to be anti-Obasanjo: Defence Minister Alhaji Ahmed Yayale and External Affairs Minister Dr Ojo Maduekwe.

In fact, Yayale, former head of service, is the chairman of the Northern Caucus in the Yar’Adua administration.

The initial intention of the administration was to give the defence portfolio to a retired military officer but this group succeeding in swinging it for Yayale.

The group plotted the removal of Bode Agusto’s name from the ministerial list to pave the way for Shamsudeen Usman as Finance Minister, who now a member of this caucus.

The Kingibe group, which is like the second eleven of the Mohammed group, also has a mandate to protect its principal and is gradually coming up to wielding its influence in state matters.

This is an emerging, growing group led by the number three citizen who has a lot of experience in the military, politics and administration.

David Mark is a third-term senator who has been playing a key role since 1999.

He leads the group that is dreaded by the Babangida group.

This is because "Babangida knows him too well".

Mark is seen as one of the ‘main backers’ of Yar’Adua.

In the power play, Mohammed and Mark are seen to be in control.

And this is because of the strategic position Mark holds as the Senate President.

With him are his deputy Ike Ekweremadu, Governors Gabriel Suswan (Benue), Celestine Omehia (Rivers), Timi Sylva (Bayelsa), Liyel Imoke (Cross River), Sullivan Chime (Enugu), Oserheimen Osunbor (Edo), Emmanuel Uduaghan (Delta) and others.

It is believed that it was Mark who convinced Yar’Adua that the call for a state of emergency in Rivers State was ill-timed.

He also gave the President the strategic military plan to curtail the cultists in the Niger-Delta.

A source said that before Yar’Adua takes any major decision, he consults with Mark, a former military governor and minister during the Babangida regime.

Obviously, this is a sort of discomfort for Babangida who sees Mark as blocking him from having a direct access to the President or, having ‘a shred of influence on Yar’Adua’.

It is believed that the Babangida group is indirectly supporting Mark’s opponent at the tribunal in Benue South senatorial district Alhaji Usman Abubakar (Young Alhaji).

Babangida knows that it will be difficult plotting for Mark’s impeachment in the upper chamber, so the best way is to remove him at the tribunal.

To Babangida, a civilian as the number three citizen will be more amenable to manoeuvre than a David Mark who knows his (Babangida’s) tricks.

Hitherto, the duo was very close but crisis came when Mark decided to back Obasanjo. That was during the build-up to the presidential election when Obasanjo plotted the ‘shooting down’ of Babangida bid to succeed him.

Between Mark and Babangida, it is like the case of the hen and the rope and the target is the President.

Leading this group is the former governor of Delta State James Ibori.

With him are some of his colleagues Chimaroke Nnamani, Lucky Igbinedion, Saminu Turaki, Orji Uzor Kalu, Joshua Dariye, Ahmed Sani, Jolly Nyame and others.

Their intention is simple: survival.

It is believed they have a common enemy which is the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and their strategy is how to ‘finish off’ the commission or drastically reduce its influence.

Their main link man to the President is the Attorney General and Minister of Justice Michael Aondoakaa.

And the Benue-born Senior Advocate is playing their script.

So far, they have not succeeded in controlling Yar’Adua and it is doubtful if they will succeed but if they can succeed in getting the EFCC off their back, they have succeeded in wielding their influence in the seat of power.

It is the worst hit of all the group and this can be traced to the ‘gentle’ nature of its principal.

Led by the Economic Adviser to the President Yakubu Tanimu, the group is however marching on.

It consists of those who know Yar’Adua ‘right from Katsina’.

The first direct hit against this group was when Tanimu, the then deputy Chief of Staff, was accused of sponsoring media attack against Mohammed to succeed.

Mohammed was removed immediately and made the Economic Adviser, who will be answerable to the minister.

It was gathered that Mohammed moved swiftly so that even if there is any vacancy eventually, Modibbo will succeed him.

Agriculture and Water Resources Minister Dr. Sayyadi Abba Ruma is also a member of this group.

Abba Ruma was Yar’Adua’s Secretary to the State Government (SSG) in Katsina State.

A setback for this group is that, unlike Obasanjo, Yar’Adua cannot assert himself.

Despite this, the group still wields some influence but not as enormous as the others.