Is It IBB's Time?

Most Nigerians are now happy, for good reasons, that Obasanjo's third term ambition is stillborn. However, in the euphoria, it must be known that the dangerous thirst of Ibrahim Babangida for power is now realistic than ever. His political machine is in full gear, ready to roll out a campaign that ony money can buy, except that the political climate is too cloudy even for the powerful dicator to see clearly.

These are happy moments in Ibrahim Babangida's political camp. A presidential ambition that was almost lifeless was given a fresh breath by the sudden knockout of President Olusegun Obasanjo's senseless third term plan on the floor of the Senate. Suddenly, the dictator's political machine rose from its coma, and gathered strength for a now promising run for Aso Rock.

Over the past months, a disoriented Babangida did not know how to handle Obasanjo's ambition, which ran directly against his own. He played diplomacy, typical scheming, public advocate and everything in his heavy bag of tricks, an effort that seems now to have paid off to unimaginable proportions.

Babangida has braced up for a race to return to Aso Rock. He is summoning every political capital at his disposal, swallowing political opponents and send errands around the nation to get kickstart his run. Very few, if any, would withstand IBB's political machine, not because of anything other than his stupendous wealth.

With billions of dollars stashed away around the world from stolen public funds, who can stop IBB? This is, in fact, the days of Babangida. The world is in his pockets. Or most of it. At the time when he least expected to survice, fortune is smiling brightly on him. Or almost.

The calculation of IBB's political camp is that he now has a legitimate claim to power, since Obasanjo, another retired general had been accepted and had run the full course of his civilian administration. The camp also assumes that time has healed Babangida's political injury, sustained by his calous cancellation of the June 12, 1993, election results, a miscalculation that caused him to be forced to "step aside," as he then described his disgrace from power. The time is now ripe for him to step back inside.

The political climate is not inclement for the self-styled evil genius. He continues to get endorsement from around the country, the most surprising is a less prominent wife of the acclaimed winner of the annulled 1993 presidential election, MKO Abiola, a Dr. Bisi Abiola, who is making waves in IBB's campaign headquarters. This Dr. Abiola, led some women and other interest groups under the auspices of "Campaign Network for IBB," on a solidarity visit to Niger State in support of the 2007 presidential ambition of the former military dictator.Babangida is, indeed, proud he has an Abiola name under his flag. The catch is meant to tell the world: "See, while you can't forgive me, the Abiola family already is working with me. You have no point continuing to fight me."

Nonetheless, the political climate is still hazy, and Babangida knows it. In spite of all his noise, he has yet to officially flag off his political ambition, one year after. It was supposed to have taken place since March of 2005. The assurance on the outside is not embedded on the inside. Babangida, being a master of trickery himself, knows the wind of uncertaintly is still blowing. That is why his gladiators, the like of Alex Akinyele, have not being fighting on the political highways of Nigeria. There is still that cloud hanging over.

It had been predicted in the past that IBB's plan is that in case he can't succeed Obasanjo, he planned to foister his confidant, the just-sacked National Security Adviser to Obasanjo, Gen Aliyu Gusau, as the presidential replacement. That game seems to be playing out now. One day after The News reported the political plans of Gusau, he was immediately fired by the President. The speculation now is that Gusau is now busy picking a running mate from the Southern part of the country.

Is Babangida giving up hopes? The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is reportedly busy probing big presidential contenders, including Babangida. President Olusegun Obasanjo is also said to prefer a successor from the South-east, as he met with governors from his party.  It is being speculated that Babangida is not on Obasanjo's wish list of successors. Could this be the signs that have placed Babangida's campaign on hold? It might as well be, since it is known that without Obasanjo's shield around the dictator, he would have been incarcerated for one offence or the other, including the death of Dele Giwa, the embezzlement of the Gulf War windfall, official corruption and similar offences committed in power.

Some are speculating in high places that Obasanjo can, as a last resort to stop IBB, arrest and try him for corruption. That, they remark, would summarily end Babangida's political career in its pregancy. Such a move would, indeed, help the sagging career of Obasanjo himself, because if there is anything Nigerians want more than anything in the corruption efforts of this administration, it is that Mr. Corruption himself, Ibrahim Babangida, be brought to justice.

Babangida is believed not to be so popular with most northerners, in spite of what we think. Among the northern lower and middle class, IBB is held in suspicion because they believe his regime not only benefitted only the haves, his June 12 misadventure brought disrepute to the region. Mohammadu Buhari and Abubakar Atiku are said to have more clout among the majority of northerners. It may therefore be that Babangida is still trying to feel the ground in his vicinity.

So, while this seems to be Ibrahim Babangida's time, the reality may actually be the contrary. On one hand, some reports say Obasanjo may actually leave Nigeria in Babangida's hands as the price for the non-support of his third term bid. On the other hand, it is assumed Obasanjo's priority now is to leave Nigeria in perfect hands as a total redemption of his name, much like his achievement when he handed over to a democratically-elected government peacefully in 1979.

Whatever the case may be, one thing is certain. Babangida continues to have political troubles, and is not yet sure if he should officially declare for Aso Rock or not. It may never really be Babangida's time. His time may already have passed when he anulled the widely-accepted election of 1993. Nigerians still hurt over that, and there may be nothing IBB can do to assuage their feelings. Babangida may have passed his days of glory already. He may have stepped aside for life. But Nigerians are watchful, waiting to pounce on him, in case he really intends to place their destinies in his dirty hands once again.