It might well be part of the Plan B that President Olusegun Obasanjo is expected to execute following the National Assembly’s rejection of the third-term agenda, May 16. In a move that caught many political observers by surprise, Obasanjo sent two army chiefs on retirement and reshuffled the hierarchy of the military. He also relieved General Aliyu Gusau (retd.) of his appointment as the national security adviser, NSA.
Affected in the exercise are General Alexander Ogomudia, chief of defence staff, CDS, and Air Marshal Jonah Wuyep, chief of air staff, CAS, who were retired. The government also announced the appointment and promotion of new service chiefs that include Lieutenant General Martin Luther Agwai, former chief of army staff, COAS, now promoted a four-star general and the new CDS; Air Vice Marshal Paul Dike, promoted air marshal and CAS, Major General Owoye Andrew Azazi, promoted to lieutenant general and COAS. The appointments and promotions took effect from Thursday, June 1. Sarki Mukhtar, retired major general and former military governor of Kaduna State, replaced Gusau. Ufot Ekaette, secretary to the federal government, who announced the changes last Tuesday, did not volunteer more information on the development.
But TELL has been reliably informed that the changes were in the offing for at least two months before the actual exercise took place. The system, for those with their ears to the ground, had been agog with news of the impending changes. Right or wrong, the changes did not come as a surprise to some of the affected officers, especially those who had been wishing to quit. That Tuesday morning, Obasanjo reportedly summoned all the affected officers and briefed each of them separately, showing appreciation for their loyalty and service to the nation. He then explained the need for change, especially as the administration moves towards its end.
The removal itself is regarded as a normal routine exercise in the military because those concerned had completed the mandatory bar of 35 years of service. For instance, Ogomudia, the retired CDS, had put in 37 years and many of those who joined the military with him have retired. But the retirement of service chiefs may not be as simple as the mandatory year of service may suggest. Worldwide, military analysts say, there are largely three models for retirement for service chiefs or chairmen, joint chiefs of staff. One extreme case is that of the United States where the chief quits, even on his own, especially when the ovation is loudest. For instance, Norman Schwarzkopf, who led the US “Operation Desert Storm” in Iraq in 1991, retired from the military as soon as he finished his assignment in that country.
The second extreme case is that of the Chinese. They are gerontocratic in their attitude to holding key offices. A good CDS or COAS who is still mentally alert and capable could well be 80 years old and still remain on the job. In between these two extremes is the British method. The British may allow five more or so years beyond retirement age for a serving chief.
Nigeria, a former British colony, adopts the British system. But the politicisation of the military, over the years, has led to a haemorrhage of the system, so much so that the standards are hardly there. Thus, for a CDS staying 37 years, two years beyond retirement age, may really be no big deal.
But some military analysts say the President has been under some intense political pressure, made worse by the third-term fiasco. The pressure is to the effect that some changes in the military be made. Initially, the Northerners were worried about being marginalised. Obviously, the idea of being out of power seemed stark enough as both the Presidency and leadership of the military were not under their control. Sources say when Ogomudia was first made general officer commanding, GOC, 1 Mechanised Division, Kaduna, there were protests from some Northerners, especially of the Arewa group, who believed the leadership of that military division should be their exclusive preserve. They even wrongly accused the GOC of siding with Southerners and Christians during the Kaduna riots in 1999. They thus agitated that the military hierarchy be skewed in favour of the North. Obasanjo is said not to have been blind to this ab initio. But he believes the military should be above ethnic or tribal sentiments. Perhaps, the North would now be happy as Agwai, a Northerner, is now the chief of defence staff.
But other forces are at play, military analysts and observers say. With the third-term controversy, the security mix went so foggy as to worry any leader worth his salt, especially a general like the President. The fear is that his top corps of military commanders might have been ‘bought into’ by the opposition, especially of the Arewa extraction. And as such, government security might have been compromised. This, perhaps, was so real that it might not be put away as guesswork. “Only Obasanjo knows where the shoe pinches because only he knows what intelligence reports there are,” says one brass hat. The reorganisation, he insists, was a strategic strike to put an imaginative or ambitious opposition in disarray.
As it is, many analysts believe more changes may well still occur in the life of this administration. “That is in line with strategic thinking. Remember that he (Obasanjo) was a general and he naturally won’t play with the element of surprise,” a source said.
Sources close to Aso Rock said that those who were eased out were not bad or seen to have been compromised. In fact, they were reputed to be good and loyal. Nonetheless, the changes may amount to a two-edged sword. One, the changes were regarded as good strategic thinking and moves from a security standpoint. Two, it could bring some instability in the military because the new chiefs may not be retained beyond May 29, 2007, when a new President takes over. “It is all too obvious that these appointments are transitional. When a new leader comes in, he surely will go for his own chiefs. That is normal, but then, the change of guard will be one too many,” says a source.
Even within the military, all the changes did not go down well in some circles. A more senior air force officer was said to have been bypassed for his junior to take over as service chief. And the by-passed officer, an Igala from Kogi State, is regarded as a most brilliant pilot. He has no choice now other than to retire while many of those who appreciate his worth are not happy with the government.
But, in the army, the appointment is said to be excellent. “Azazi is a great intelligence officer and undoubtedly the best out of a troika or possibly a quartet of military officers who could become the COAS right now,” a source said. Azazi, until his promotion as COAS, headed the Directorate of Military Intelligence, DMI, before becoming GOC, 1 Mechanised Division, Kaduna. A serving general who knows his track record described him as “straightforward and a damn good officer.”
Although Agwai, the new CDS, has served the mandatory 35 years, he is said to have been retained to ensure continuity at a time of much change. “Strategic move or not, some element of continuity just has to be maintained in matters like this,” a source said, adding “even then, his being so appointed is another indication that these appointments are generally transitional.”
Sources also dismissed as neither here nor there the notion that the office of the CDS should have gone to the air force. They argued that the idea of rotation among the service chiefs was not a rule-of-the-thumb thing. And in the present dispensation, the right choice is Agwai, being the most senior service chief.
The idea of having joint service chiefs, which was re-institutionalised under Ogomudia as CDS, is said to be very critical to a modern military. Along this development is the harmonisation of service conditions, and the military is the better for it. For instance, it has brought about a sharper intellectual edge and greater professionalism because of the great emphasis on training at home and abroad for effectiveness. This is much a legacy of the Ogomudia era.
There is a point to worry about, though. General Victor Malu, retired COAS, often frowned at in military circles as loquacious, opened a Pandora’s box when he was ousted from office. He cried out that the military was being deliberately starved of funds. Sources say he is right, at least on this point. The practice is still largely in place though TELL was reliably informed that there had been some remarkable improvements. Military sources said the poor funding limited the advancement of the military to a level much lower than what it could have been.
Yet the poor funding may well have suited the Americans and British, Nigeria’s strongest military allies. Some of their senior military officers are said to be concerned that, with relatively modest investments in military hardware and materiel, Nigeria’s armed forces seem to be doing well as a fighting force in international assignments. Hence, they now appear subtly to discourage a heavy re-armament for Nigeria. “They (America and Britain) are always jittery when there is talk of Nigeria shopping for arms,” a colonel said.
But a source at the Ministry of Defence says there is no truth in all this, claiming that the present administration has funded the military more than any other administration. “Anyone asking for more funds now is a warmonger. But, to think about it, there is no war now,” he says. According to him, what the administration is doing now is “balanced and strategic development of the armed forces, a development that bears in mind the equitable distribution of scarce resources to the other sectors of our society.” He says that if there had been a preponderance of government spending on the military, the West (the US and Europe) would have said: “Look, you are saying you are poor and keep asking us to grant you debt forgiveness. But look at your military. It is heavily armed with sophisticated weapons. Being poor and militarily strong at the same time just don’t add. So, no debt forgiveness.”
The removal of Gusau, on the other hand, was said to be a bit complex. Sources claimed the former NSA was surprised when the President asked for his resignation last week. He is believed to be a casualty of the third-term agenda, because he allegedly gave covert support to those opposed to it. An Aso Rock source, however, says: “The gentleman may just be real tired. You see, government job done with all devotion and commitment is a thankless exercise. Besides, and that is very important, a top government job is both emotionally and physically consuming. You can’t do things your own way, no matter how good your good intentions are. So, Gusau may just have told the President that he is tired and would like to go and the President obliged.” But another source puts the matter differently. According to him, Gusau has presidential ambition and the President may have just allowed his exit so that he can pursue it.
The source says that Gusau’s presidential ambition should not be taken lightly, claiming that he is one spook who is most influential, especially at home and in key countries of the West. “Anything he wants, I bet, he will get it very easily from the Americans, the British and the French. That is no mean achievement. He simply is influential. And he is one man you will hear from very soon in connection with 2007.” But, was he sacked for his political ambition? Not quite, says the source. “Gusau works behind the scenes and he is not in the bad book of the President. That is enough to let all know that he did not part with the President on a sour, sad note.” Otherwise, analysts believe that his exit could have a grave security implication for the President and reduce his capability to anoint a successor.
Even with his bona fides as a confidant of the President, it is not clear if Gusau had the backing of Obasanjo for his presidential ambition. The preponderant view is that Obasanjo wants a South-south person to be the next president, but in case that failed, it is understood that he might support a ‘safe’ Northern candidate such as Gusau. If, indeed, that is the case, analysts say he would be using one stone to kill two birds. By making him the favoured candidate, he would be pleasing General Ibrahim Babangida, former military president whom he does not want to succeed him in office, and he would also be pleasing the Northern elements who want the next president to come from their fold.
It is also uncertain if Gusau has the support of Babangida, his godfather in the army, who is equally interested in the office. “Gusau wants to do it himself. He doesn’t want to stay under the shadow of Babangida anymore,” a source in Kaduna told this magazine.
But the concern in many quarters is that Gusau is robustly pro-Northern establishment, in which case he may likely reverse some of the things that Obasanjo has been able to put in place. There are fears that he would go back on privatisation. He may not continue the reforms of the Obasanjo administration. He has not been quoted anywhere to have either supported or criticised any government policy on the economy, or anything for that matter. For a man hardly known outside the military, some politicians say it would be difficult for him to pull it off. Some analysts argue that, as a retired general with intelligence background, he has the ability to forestall coups and stabilise the polity. But there are observers who also believe that the military overhang on the polity is not good for the country, because Obasanjo himself is a retired general. Thus, they say Nigerians may not wish to elect another military officer.
Taciturn and withdrawn, Gusau is heavily relying on the cabal in the secret Cosa Nostra. He is said to be well connected and has considerable means to prosecute the project. Ango Abdullahi, professor of Agriculture and former senior special assistant on agriculture at the Presidency, is his campaign manager. Curiously, it was Vice President Atiku Abubakar that took Abdullahi to the Presidency. But when Abubakar started having problems with Obasanjo, the professor shifted base to Gusau.
Gusau was said to have played a leading role in drafting Obasanjo into the presidential contest in 1998 when the General Abdulsalami Abubakar regime unfolded its transition programme to return the country to a civilian democratic government. What security implications the exit of these generals would have in the remaining tenure of the Obasanjo administration may well be left to time. For now, it is enough to say, as a serving general told the magazine, “All is well, wallahi.”
But TELL has been reliably informed that the changes were in the offing for at least two months before the actual exercise took place. The system, for those with their ears to the ground, had been agog with news of the impending changes. Right or wrong, the changes did not come as a surprise to some of the affected officers, especially those who had been wishing to quit. That Tuesday morning, Obasanjo reportedly summoned all the affected officers and briefed each of them separately, showing appreciation for their loyalty and service to the nation. He then explained the need for change, especially as the administration moves towards its end.
The removal itself is regarded as a normal routine exercise in the military because those concerned had completed the mandatory bar of 35 years of service. For instance, Ogomudia, the retired CDS, had put in 37 years and many of those who joined the military with him have retired. But the retirement of service chiefs may not be as simple as the mandatory year of service may suggest. Worldwide, military analysts say, there are largely three models for retirement for service chiefs or chairmen, joint chiefs of staff. One extreme case is that of the United States where the chief quits, even on his own, especially when the ovation is loudest. For instance, Norman Schwarzkopf, who led the US “Operation Desert Storm” in Iraq in 1991, retired from the military as soon as he finished his assignment in that country.
The second extreme case is that of the Chinese. They are gerontocratic in their attitude to holding key offices. A good CDS or COAS who is still mentally alert and capable could well be 80 years old and still remain on the job. In between these two extremes is the British method. The British may allow five more or so years beyond retirement age for a serving chief.
Nigeria, a former British colony, adopts the British system. But the politicisation of the military, over the years, has led to a haemorrhage of the system, so much so that the standards are hardly there. Thus, for a CDS staying 37 years, two years beyond retirement age, may really be no big deal.
But some military analysts say the President has been under some intense political pressure, made worse by the third-term fiasco. The pressure is to the effect that some changes in the military be made. Initially, the Northerners were worried about being marginalised. Obviously, the idea of being out of power seemed stark enough as both the Presidency and leadership of the military were not under their control. Sources say when Ogomudia was first made general officer commanding, GOC, 1 Mechanised Division, Kaduna, there were protests from some Northerners, especially of the Arewa group, who believed the leadership of that military division should be their exclusive preserve. They even wrongly accused the GOC of siding with Southerners and Christians during the Kaduna riots in 1999. They thus agitated that the military hierarchy be skewed in favour of the North. Obasanjo is said not to have been blind to this ab initio. But he believes the military should be above ethnic or tribal sentiments. Perhaps, the North would now be happy as Agwai, a Northerner, is now the chief of defence staff.
But other forces are at play, military analysts and observers say. With the third-term controversy, the security mix went so foggy as to worry any leader worth his salt, especially a general like the President. The fear is that his top corps of military commanders might have been ‘bought into’ by the opposition, especially of the Arewa extraction. And as such, government security might have been compromised. This, perhaps, was so real that it might not be put away as guesswork. “Only Obasanjo knows where the shoe pinches because only he knows what intelligence reports there are,” says one brass hat. The reorganisation, he insists, was a strategic strike to put an imaginative or ambitious opposition in disarray.
As it is, many analysts believe more changes may well still occur in the life of this administration. “That is in line with strategic thinking. Remember that he (Obasanjo) was a general and he naturally won’t play with the element of surprise,” a source said.
Sources close to Aso Rock said that those who were eased out were not bad or seen to have been compromised. In fact, they were reputed to be good and loyal. Nonetheless, the changes may amount to a two-edged sword. One, the changes were regarded as good strategic thinking and moves from a security standpoint. Two, it could bring some instability in the military because the new chiefs may not be retained beyond May 29, 2007, when a new President takes over. “It is all too obvious that these appointments are transitional. When a new leader comes in, he surely will go for his own chiefs. That is normal, but then, the change of guard will be one too many,” says a source.
Even within the military, all the changes did not go down well in some circles. A more senior air force officer was said to have been bypassed for his junior to take over as service chief. And the by-passed officer, an Igala from Kogi State, is regarded as a most brilliant pilot. He has no choice now other than to retire while many of those who appreciate his worth are not happy with the government.
But, in the army, the appointment is said to be excellent. “Azazi is a great intelligence officer and undoubtedly the best out of a troika or possibly a quartet of military officers who could become the COAS right now,” a source said. Azazi, until his promotion as COAS, headed the Directorate of Military Intelligence, DMI, before becoming GOC, 1 Mechanised Division, Kaduna. A serving general who knows his track record described him as “straightforward and a damn good officer.”
Although Agwai, the new CDS, has served the mandatory 35 years, he is said to have been retained to ensure continuity at a time of much change. “Strategic move or not, some element of continuity just has to be maintained in matters like this,” a source said, adding “even then, his being so appointed is another indication that these appointments are generally transitional.”
Sources also dismissed as neither here nor there the notion that the office of the CDS should have gone to the air force. They argued that the idea of rotation among the service chiefs was not a rule-of-the-thumb thing. And in the present dispensation, the right choice is Agwai, being the most senior service chief.
The idea of having joint service chiefs, which was re-institutionalised under Ogomudia as CDS, is said to be very critical to a modern military. Along this development is the harmonisation of service conditions, and the military is the better for it. For instance, it has brought about a sharper intellectual edge and greater professionalism because of the great emphasis on training at home and abroad for effectiveness. This is much a legacy of the Ogomudia era.
There is a point to worry about, though. General Victor Malu, retired COAS, often frowned at in military circles as loquacious, opened a Pandora’s box when he was ousted from office. He cried out that the military was being deliberately starved of funds. Sources say he is right, at least on this point. The practice is still largely in place though TELL was reliably informed that there had been some remarkable improvements. Military sources said the poor funding limited the advancement of the military to a level much lower than what it could have been.
Yet the poor funding may well have suited the Americans and British, Nigeria’s strongest military allies. Some of their senior military officers are said to be concerned that, with relatively modest investments in military hardware and materiel, Nigeria’s armed forces seem to be doing well as a fighting force in international assignments. Hence, they now appear subtly to discourage a heavy re-armament for Nigeria. “They (America and Britain) are always jittery when there is talk of Nigeria shopping for arms,” a colonel said.
But a source at the Ministry of Defence says there is no truth in all this, claiming that the present administration has funded the military more than any other administration. “Anyone asking for more funds now is a warmonger. But, to think about it, there is no war now,” he says. According to him, what the administration is doing now is “balanced and strategic development of the armed forces, a development that bears in mind the equitable distribution of scarce resources to the other sectors of our society.” He says that if there had been a preponderance of government spending on the military, the West (the US and Europe) would have said: “Look, you are saying you are poor and keep asking us to grant you debt forgiveness. But look at your military. It is heavily armed with sophisticated weapons. Being poor and militarily strong at the same time just don’t add. So, no debt forgiveness.”
The removal of Gusau, on the other hand, was said to be a bit complex. Sources claimed the former NSA was surprised when the President asked for his resignation last week. He is believed to be a casualty of the third-term agenda, because he allegedly gave covert support to those opposed to it. An Aso Rock source, however, says: “The gentleman may just be real tired. You see, government job done with all devotion and commitment is a thankless exercise. Besides, and that is very important, a top government job is both emotionally and physically consuming. You can’t do things your own way, no matter how good your good intentions are. So, Gusau may just have told the President that he is tired and would like to go and the President obliged.” But another source puts the matter differently. According to him, Gusau has presidential ambition and the President may have just allowed his exit so that he can pursue it.
The source says that Gusau’s presidential ambition should not be taken lightly, claiming that he is one spook who is most influential, especially at home and in key countries of the West. “Anything he wants, I bet, he will get it very easily from the Americans, the British and the French. That is no mean achievement. He simply is influential. And he is one man you will hear from very soon in connection with 2007.” But, was he sacked for his political ambition? Not quite, says the source. “Gusau works behind the scenes and he is not in the bad book of the President. That is enough to let all know that he did not part with the President on a sour, sad note.” Otherwise, analysts believe that his exit could have a grave security implication for the President and reduce his capability to anoint a successor.
Even with his bona fides as a confidant of the President, it is not clear if Gusau had the backing of Obasanjo for his presidential ambition. The preponderant view is that Obasanjo wants a South-south person to be the next president, but in case that failed, it is understood that he might support a ‘safe’ Northern candidate such as Gusau. If, indeed, that is the case, analysts say he would be using one stone to kill two birds. By making him the favoured candidate, he would be pleasing General Ibrahim Babangida, former military president whom he does not want to succeed him in office, and he would also be pleasing the Northern elements who want the next president to come from their fold.
It is also uncertain if Gusau has the support of Babangida, his godfather in the army, who is equally interested in the office. “Gusau wants to do it himself. He doesn’t want to stay under the shadow of Babangida anymore,” a source in Kaduna told this magazine.
But the concern in many quarters is that Gusau is robustly pro-Northern establishment, in which case he may likely reverse some of the things that Obasanjo has been able to put in place. There are fears that he would go back on privatisation. He may not continue the reforms of the Obasanjo administration. He has not been quoted anywhere to have either supported or criticised any government policy on the economy, or anything for that matter. For a man hardly known outside the military, some politicians say it would be difficult for him to pull it off. Some analysts argue that, as a retired general with intelligence background, he has the ability to forestall coups and stabilise the polity. But there are observers who also believe that the military overhang on the polity is not good for the country, because Obasanjo himself is a retired general. Thus, they say Nigerians may not wish to elect another military officer.
Taciturn and withdrawn, Gusau is heavily relying on the cabal in the secret Cosa Nostra. He is said to be well connected and has considerable means to prosecute the project. Ango Abdullahi, professor of Agriculture and former senior special assistant on agriculture at the Presidency, is his campaign manager. Curiously, it was Vice President Atiku Abubakar that took Abdullahi to the Presidency. But when Abubakar started having problems with Obasanjo, the professor shifted base to Gusau.
Gusau was said to have played a leading role in drafting Obasanjo into the presidential contest in 1998 when the General Abdulsalami Abubakar regime unfolded its transition programme to return the country to a civilian democratic government. What security implications the exit of these generals would have in the remaining tenure of the Obasanjo administration may well be left to time. For now, it is enough to say, as a serving general told the magazine, “All is well, wallahi.”
