At last, former governor of Borno and Lagos states, Brigadier Gen. Buba Marwa, has flagged off his campaign for the 2007 presidential election. Nothing can make his former boss, General Ibrahim Babangida, more afraid of his chances to win the presidency in 2007.
Marwa's declaration in Abuja at the weekend is definitely a minus for the Babangida campaign. Marwa draws appeal from the kind of people Babangida can only dream of courting, and has a potential to win votes that Babangida cannot hope for.
For several months, Marwa's campaign had been incubating. After a successful campaign in the United States, the Adamawa general was briefly detained and questioned by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission for an alleged complicity in an illegal funds transfer for the former brutal dictator, Gen. Sani Abacha.
The result of that interrogation is yet unknown, but it appears Marwa has sensed a clearance, because he gathered a powerful crowd while launching his ambition. The declaration was attended by dignitaries, among them, the British High Commissioner to Nigeria, Mr. Richard Grozney. Also in attendance were Deputy Leader of the Senate, Senator Jonathan Zwingina, Senator Abubakar Girei, Senator Iya Abubakar, Arc. Gabriel Aduku, Prof Femi Odekunle, Mrs. Josephine Anenih and Dr. Terhemba Shirja.
His supporters home and abroad had seemed confused about Marwa's political ambition, as he kept mum since the beginning of 2006. Marwa's supporters, especially those abroad, were desperate to know what was happening to the general. And the feeling was of elation at the weekend. An inside source in the United States, who spoke to againstbabangida.com, said there is excitement among those who have pledged to work for Marwa's campaign.
What does Marwa's declaration bring to the table? It has thrown a mighty spanner in the works for the other candidates originating from the north, especially Ibrahim Babangida, Mohammadu Buhari and Abubakar Atiku.
Babangida's campaign relies very heavily on northern votes. That block of votes is now going to be split both within the PDP and the general electorate- if both of them should vie on the platform of different political parties. Marwa has most of the positives of IBB, and perhaps none of his negatives.
Marwa does not have the kind of problems that will potentially serve as a clog in the wheel of Babangida's progress. One of these clogs is June 12. While Babangida has only been half-explaining the June 12 election annulment, it potentially will eat him up when he stands before voters. Contrarily, Marwa has a subtle appeal nationally, but particularly among the Yorubas, who are mostly still aggrieved by June 12. Marwa, as the military governor of Lagos State, is believed to have done such a tremendous job that his service is a big plus for him.
In much of 2005, when Marwa explored his presidential ambition, rumors had it that Babangida had been prevailing on him to abort it. It is without doubt that no candidate would worry IBB from the north than the amiable younger general, who could tread where Babangida feared to venture. Marwa's candidacy is formidable and IBB should be worried.
As Marwa officially unleashed in Abuja, it was apparent he would be able to tap into a broad section of the political spectrum. Those who spoke at the venue included the representatives of the Ijaw Youth Forum, Youth Christian Association of Nigeria, Yoruba Youths, Association of the Physically Challenged and the Woman Leader of the Adamawa State chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Hajia Hana Saulawa - the very kind of groups Babangida would not be able to attract. They all praised Marwa for being a detrabilised Nigerian, who has touched the lives of the people in different ways.
Another problem Marwa presents is for Vice President Abubakar Atiku. They both come from the same state, which means Marwa's ambition is a direct insurrection against Atiku's hopes. Worse still, Atiku's legs are shaky within his party PDP, where both of them had been at loggerheads for about a year.
While Atiku has a fairly strong political base, spearheaded by the Turaki Vanguard, that base had been on the decline since Atiku's war with President Olusegun Obasanjo started. Most of the governors that provided his staunchest support, are no longer sure of even their own positioning, while some of them have lost their power to political opponents and the EFCC. Atiku also has other problems, particularly the on-going FBI investigations in the United States about a bribery scandal involving a telecommunications company that alleged Atiku demanded a $500,000 bribe.
In spite of Marwa's appeal and potential, he is dogged by three factors. First, he is a former military general, who participated politically under the Babangida and Abacha regimes. Military generals have generally been given a bad name since the regime of Babangida. Secondly, the EFCC has not officially cleared the name of Marwa for the alleged money laundering done for Abacha. Thirdly, it is not yet apparent that the South-South will cede power to the North as they continue to fight fiercely to enjoy power just this once.
It remains to be seen where Marwa's campaign is headed. The political terrain is still cloudy. No one knows what President Obasanjo has on his chest, and he remains powerful. The EFCC wields a might stick that could ground any political ambition. But one thing that is sure is that with Marwa, Babangida's road will be terribly rough.
