Some of President Olusegun Obasanjo's aides are reported to be exploring how to benefit from a Babangida presidency, as the ground continues to shift from the South-south to the north for the presidency in 2007. Former military dicator, General Ibrahim Babangida, is spending big to succeed President Olusegun Obasanjo, and Aso Rock is buckling, reports ThisDay.
THISDAY checks reveal that Babangida has in recent weeks had about five exploratory talks in Aso Rock, one of which was with Obasanjo directly, and the others with some of the President’s powerful aides. The discussions, THISDAY learnt, centered on a possible support for Babangida’s candidacy in a bid to stop the emergence of Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
While all these permutations are going on however, Atiku and Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) remain strong contenders with Ambassador Baba Gana Kingibe emerging as a likely dark horse in a race that may actually be decided among Northern candidates.
THISDAY sources confirm that prominent members of the Obasanjo camp may have decided to hold exploratory talks with Babangida to see how far he will go with the on-going reform agenda of the administration.
The calculation of the camp, according to sources, is that Babangida not only has the clout to help stop an Atiku presidency, "he also has the capacity not to buckle even under the tyranny of the Nigerian press like Obasanjo has done."
Obasanjo had, in the aftermath of the crushing defeat of his bid for an extra term of office, proposed to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors to search for his successor from among them.
The governors moved to actualise the proposal by setting up a search team headed by Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose.
But Obasanjo is said to be worried that the governors who have shown interest so far are political lightweights none of whom may be able to stop Atiku in a major political contest.
Babangida may have, through some of the presidential aides, succeeded in persuading Obasanjo that not only is he the only person capable of stopping Atiku, he also has the disposition to continue with the economic reform agenda.
According to a Presidency official who is part of the on-going negotiations, "the discussions are still rather tricky and nothing is decided yet because the element of trust is still far away but there are clear signs that we can work together."
Part of the conditions given Babangida, according to this source, is that he should do away with what is described as his 'political baggage', former aides of his who are still very much visible but despised by many Nigerians.
According to the source, names were mentioned of the kind of people Babangida must never allow to be part of his government should he get to power this time.
However, Aso Rock Villa insiders say the support for Babangida is conditional and will only be actualised if the situation becomes clear that he is the only electoral asset that can block Atiku’s bid for the number one job.
THISDAY had earlier reported that Babangida's presidential declaration, which close watchers of his camp say may have complicated the presidential ambition of former National Security Adviser, Lt. General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, is gathering pace despite the foggy succession plan of Obasanjo.
The disengagement of Gusau as Obasanjo’s security adviser for seven years had fueled speculations that he was being excused to go and begin preparations for the presidential race in line with a strategic plan of military power elite to hold the presidency for about 30 years.
But while these cold calculations are going on, some members of the economic team who despise the idea of a Babangida return to power are also said to be holding talks with Atiku who they consider a "lesser evil".
The thinking of this camp, according to a member, is that "with Atiku, the problem is that he is usually a victim of whichever group hijacks him first. If he has good people around, he will likely run a good government but if he has those other people then you can imagine the kind of government we will have."
This group believes Atiku, being part of this administration, no matter how he feels, is not likely to throw away the economic programme.
Already, Atiku’s deft moves across the political landscape is said to be giving Obasanjo some headache, particularly with the crisis in the ruling PDP widely believed to have been engineered by the VP.
Atiku’s strategy is to weaken the PDP by dividing it so that by the time he is denied the party’s presidential ticket, what will be left of it will be a rump that will be of no electoral value to its inheritors.
The Atiku strategy appears to be working as party chiefs expressed concern last week that the crisis has left the PDP in a fluid state so much so that no one can identify with certainty its members.
With this kind of situation, say a Presidency source, Obasanjo may seek the best possible option that will help him to stop Atiku, and Babangida’s camp is already benefitting.
But not all the people within the Obasanjo camp are comfortable with the prospect of either Babangida or Atiku. Another person whose candidature is quietly being sold is Kingibe, former running mate to Chief MKO Abiola in the June 1993 presidential election.
Specifically, Kingibe’s candidature is being canvassed by some governors and political operatives who are against another general as president but are also uncomfortable with Atiku.
Currently a United Nations Special envoy in Darfur, Sudan, Kingibe is said to have national name recognition and international clout. He is expected to return to the country in mid-July when he would consider his options.
But what is currently counting against Kingibe is that Obasanjo is said to express reservations about the fact that he will not want to endorse a person he does not know well enough as to make judgement on.
Meanwhile, Buhari, who commands large following in the North, is already reaching out to members of the Afenifere High Command, many of whom see him as a credible person with whom they can work.
Buhari, according to sources, is also making serious inroad into the East though the major drawback now is the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) platform that appears very weak.
