Yar

President Umaru Yar’Adua is no longer the beacon of hope he was to the Niger Delta when he was sworn in on May 29, 2007. Within the past 13 months he has squandered all the hope, all the goodwill and all the trust reposed in him by the majority of the people of that zone on the platter of political permutations. That is why his proposal for a Niger Delta Summit has seemingly hit the rocks.

Yar’Adua had promised to reverse the despoliation of the Niger Delta and put the rich oil belt on the road to rapid development in six months. It was a major fulcrum of the President’s seven-point agenda. The people believed him. His innocent face and benign aura promised better empathy than former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s hard mien and military bravado. But subsequent events have proved their expectations misplaced. Thirteen months into Yar’Adua’s four-year tenure he is just about to stage a summit to determine the fate of the Niger Delta.

But some Ijaw youths, including militants, decided to tinker with the honeymoon which the federal government has enjoyed for about eight months, suspecting that there may be a deliberate strategy by Yar’Adua not to commit more funds to the development of the area. So, on June 14, Ijaw Youths Leaders Forum, with head office at Oporoza, Delta State, reviewed the performance and commitment of the Yar’Adua administration to the Niger Delta peace process and declared that the government’s commitment is “flawed”. Having reached that conclusion, the meeting, attended by many of the leaders in the struggle for justice such as Mujahid Asari Dokubo, Government Ekpemupolo, Chris Ekiyor; Timi Ogoriba, Oyinfie Jonjon and Felix Tuodolo, among others, decided to withdraw its committee that had been secretly working with the federal government on the blueprint for peace in the Niger Delta.

They alleged that the Nigerian Army was bent on implementing a military solution to the Niger Delta conflict as contained in the Major Gerna Ngubane brief of July 2007, and asked for the immediate release of Henry Okah, factional leader of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, MEND, who is currently being tried in camera at Jos, Plateau State. They equally demanded the immediate release of withheld Niger Delta Development Commission, NDDC, funds,  Consequently, they resolved “that Ijaw youths will not participate in the planned Niger Delta Summit except the terms previously agreed between government and the Ijaw representatives are met by the government”.
Early in Yar’ Adua’s administration, when the Niger Delta appeared to be a core priority, he appointed the Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, an Ijaw from Bayelsa State, to lead the peace process. The fierce urgency of the time compelled Jonathan to visit the militant leaders at their dens at Okerenkoko, Oporoza and other communities on June 28, 2007. This engagement early in the life of the administration brought some calm to the Niger Delta, as the militants declared a unilateral ceasefire. The creek diplomacy even led to some meetings of youth leaders from the area with the President.

Dokubo: To be charged?

Ogoriba, who is a member of the Presidential Committee on Peace and Conflict Resolution in the Niger Delta, said that they saw the President on the first two sittings and on the fourth when they gave him “our road map to peace”. The youths requested that, for peace to be sustained, the federal government should do five things: release of Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, a former governor of Bayelsa State convicted for corruption; withdrawal of troops from Ijaw towns and villages and their replacement with the police where necessary; amnesty to Ijaw freedom fighters in detention, prison and those under surveillance; rehabilitation of Odi and Odioma, Ijaw communities destroyed by federal troops during the Obasanjo administration; and finally that Yar’Adua should visit designated oil-producing communities in the creeks of the Niger Delta to get a first-hand assessment of the situation after which he should declare a development emergency in the Niger Delta. Among these conditions, only the first has been met to date. Since then, the federal government had gone on the offensive.

To worsen the situation, Okah who, they say, had given his cooperation to the peace effort, was arrested in Angola by Interpol at the instance of the federal government. In November 2007, the military invaded Gbaranu and in December 2007 they attacked Ateke Tom, leader of Niger Delta Vigilante, destroyed his Okrika home and drove him into the creeks from where he has  since been carrying out retaliatory attacks. The youths were also shocked when Yar’Adua proposed N444.6 billion in the 2008 budget for “security” in the Niger Delta. In the same budget proposal, he set aside only N69 billion for development in the Niger Delta through the NDDC, whose over N300 billion constitutional funds were withheld by the federal government between 2001 and December 2007. The National Assembly had to use its discretion to raise the NDDC budget to N79 billion. Yar’Adua later explained that the money owed NDDC had “expired,” to the amazement of the people of the Niger Delta. These signs of insincerity and volte-face jolted the youths and set alarms ringing in their heads. Consequently, on December 14, 2007, they pulled out from the dialogue with the federal government. But the federal government lobbied Ijaw elders to convince the youths to return to the negotiating table, promising to implement decisions reached. They reluctantly returned to the process on March 12, 2008 and the next day both parties agreed on the road map to peace in the Niger Delta.

In the course of the negotiations, some meetings were presided over by the Vice President, others were chaired by Babagana Kingibe, secretary to the government of the federation and, later, Yayale Ahmed, the minister of defence took over. The youths particularly noted the “lacklustre attitude” of Kingibe in handling the affairs of the committee. “We found out that there was an inner feeling that nothing would be done for the Niger Delta; that they would manage us,” another member of the committee said. The youths said they complained to the President and this led to Kingibe being replaced with Ahmed. But even this did not bring a change in the disposition of power. Subsequently, Jonathan was returned as chairman of the committee. At this change, the youths “felt that something was wrong. It was blackmail; that he should solve his people’s problem.”

That is one issue weighing heavily on the heart of Niger Delta people. Kimse Okoko, president of the Ijaw National Council says that it appears that, because Jonathan is from the Niger Delta, the President has assigned the resolution of the Niger Delta conflict to him so that, at the fullness of time, failure will be attributed to him and not to the system. This is seen as an instrument of blackmail on the Niger Delta and unacceptable. Ledum Mitee, president of the Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People, feels strongly about this too. “Using the Vice President to talk to the Niger Delta, in my view, is ill-advised. I feel the Vice President should not be put in a situation where they will say, go and deal with your own people’s problem. That also shows lack of consultations because if you have consulted with the people you would have got their feelings,” Mitee says.  There is an impact on the Vice President already. For instance, Opaliko Inko-Tariah, publisher of Hard Truth, says it is a sorry situation: “As the Vice President, he is even the one proposing this summit; he has suddenly forgotten the problems of his people… an outsider will know my problem more than I do.” 

The youths are suspicious of every move by the administration because, according to them, none of the decisions reached with the federal government had been implemented. They complain that, “On the contrary, government is carrying out heinous activities detrimental to the peace in the region.” The evidence they proffer on this are the several attacks by the Joint Military Task Force, JTF, on several communities since the beginning of the year, ostensibly in search of militants. For instance, on June 3, 2008, JTF again attacked Twon Brass in Bayelsa State, brutalised and arrested several people. Three days later, they attacked Epebu community in Bayelsa State and allegedly killed three persons. On June 8, JTF invaded Safarogbo Zion, an Ijaw community in Edo State, and rendered many families homeless. The same day, the soldiers also attacked Egbema I and Egbema II communities in Edo State and burned down many homes. And to add insult to injury, the federal government unilaterally announced a Niger Delta Summit to address the problem of the area.

Consequently, the youths concluded that the government does not want to develop the region but is only buying time by creating a complicated peace process. So, they pulled out from the peace process on June 14. Five days later, on June 19, MEND, now led by Boyloaf, attacked the Bonga oilfield, located 75 nautical miles (120 kilometres) off the coast of Bayelsa State,  causing a shut-in  of 225,000 barrels per day, bpd. The next day, Egbema I militant group attacked the Abiteye–Olero pipeline, near Okada village in Edo State, causing a shut-in of another 120,000 bpd. MEND claimed it “empowered” those who carried out the operation “with more powerful explosives and new techniques.” With the latest shut-ins, crude oil export has dropped by one million barrels per day, mb/d.

With the Bonga attack, Shell alone now accounts for about 745,000 tb/d,  shut-ins. Three times this year, the sweating oil major has declared force majure, an official announcement that it would be unable to meet its supply obligations. It owes its contractors and workers, and just recently sacked about 4000 of its workers, both full and contract staff, many of them from the Niger Delta.

This set-back in oil export occurred just when Nigeria’s production rose marginally in May by 64.4 tb/d to an average of 1.88 mb/d, as against 1.82 mb/d in April. In the same period, Saudi Arabia, Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, and world’s highest producer, which has had the pleasant burden of raising her production to make up for shortfalls from troubled regions like Nigeria and Iran, produced an average of 9.1mb/d, an increase of 150.3 tb/d over the 8.9 mb/d produced in April. Together, the 13 OPEC countries produced an average total of 32.1 mb/d in May, an average increase of 343 tb/d over the 31.8 mb/d produced in April. That was why the price of oil rose by 91 cents, to $137.59, a few hours after the Bonga attack over supply concerns and inched to $140 after the second attack on Chevron’s Escravos/Abiteye flow lines in Warri North Local Government.

The two incidents effectively wiped out the 343 tb/d increase in May and raised adrenaline in the crude oil market. By Tuesday, July 2, 2008, it had gone up to $142.16 a barrel. Chakib Khelil, OPEC president and Algerian energy minister, said in Madrid, Spain, the same day that OPEC could not pump more crude to “cool” galloping oil price.  The tension in the oil market is blamed on production crisis in Nigeria, Iran and the weakened dollar. “Tensions with Iran seem to be worsening and intensifying, Nigeria seems on the verge of complete chaos, or even civil war and ECB (European Central Bank) seems determined to march the dollar right off a cliff,” explained Cameron Hanover, a firm of energy analysts last Tuesday.

The recent escalation in the attacks and counter-attacks by JTF and militants were said to have arisen because the military lost some arms and ammunition to a militant group known as Deadly Underdogs, which raided the military’s armoury. The desperation by the soldiers to recover their weapons broke the ceasefire through attacks on the camps of Deadly Underdogs, Prince Edolor and Egbema I. They allegedly inflicted serious causalties on the communities. Ebiakpo Tuubolayefa, president of Warri-based Niger Delta Riverine Peace Campaign Movement, said this happened even after the Delta State Waterways Monitoring Corps, a non-governmental organisation campaigning for an end to violence in the Niger Delta, had recovered the seized weapons from the militants and returned them to the security men. However, Lukas Yusuf, chief of army staff, recently revealed that the weapons were returned without the ammunition and that the search was to recover the ammunition. This exercise coincided with the announcement of the controversial Niger Delta Summit and the counter-announcement of the Ijaw Youth Leaders Forum of withdrawal from the peace process.  Consequently, the Niger Delta went up in flames.

Opposition to the summit was further aggravated by the appointment of Ibrahim Gambari, a seasoned diplomat and former Nigerian representative to the United Nations, UN, as chairman of the 25-man steering committee of the summit.

The contention was not Gambari’s qualification. Rather, it was his justification 13 years ago of what was widely described as the judicial murder of Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight other Ogoni activists on November 10, 1995 by the General Sani Abacha junta.  He reportedly described the Ogoni activists, regarded as heroes of the struggle by the people of Niger Delta as “common criminals.”

His choice as steering committee chairman of the summit has enhanced suspicions that the federal government is insisting on Gambari because he is the only northerner with international exposure who can also be trusted to protect the interest of the North during the summit. Those who argue this way said the same primordial interest ruled out even non-Nigerians like Kofi Annan, former UN secretary-general, who they claim might expose the depth of injustice in the polity and embarrass the federal government  in the international community.

But Akachukwu Nwakpo, senior special assistant to the Vice President and a technical officer on the proposed summit, says Gambari was chosen entirely on merit. His defence, however, was made puerile by the stand of the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, the pan-Northern socio-political group which feels that the Niger Delta already has more than it deserves but is losing it to corruption.

The fear of the people on Gambari was further fuelled last week when he declared after a meeting with the President at the Aso Villa that the summit is a national summit and not just for the Niger Delta. He equally justified his role in defending the killing of the Ogoni activists before the international community as being in the interest of the country. They said this suggests that he can also support injustice against the Niger Delta at the summit in the “interest of the nation” as defined by those who appointed him. However, Nwakpo reasons that the chairman cannot determine the end as he has no such powers and that there is no need for a foreigner to chair the steering committee as the Niger Delta issue is a domestic affair of Nigeria as a sovereign nation, but that friends and foreign stakeholders will participate as observers (for details, see interview). Mitee prefers a non-Nigerian but an African like Desmond Tutu, an archbishop from South Africa, Annan or others of that calibre.

So, why is the government spending money and time on a controversial summit? Nwakpo says it is to generate the framework and a system for implementation of a road map, where all the stakeholders play their assigned roles. According to him, the problem with the Niger Delta is not necessarily that of development but a systems error which must be first corrected to enable solutions to work. The popular view in the Niger Delta is that the federal government should rather lead by example by implementing a marshal plan and other loose ends will fall into place. “Don’t come and tell me you gave our state governors this, what have they done with the fund? It’s none of your business. You pay my salary, what I do with my salary is none of your business,” insists Inko-Tariah. Many Niger Delta activists feel this way. They argue that the federal government wants to hide under the guise of corruption among the political class to deny the zone its rights.

Obasanjo: Fashioned a masterplan for Niger-Delta

Obasanjo, can address this injustice without a summit.
The next issue which they feel is not a summit issue is that of the  derivation formula. The Niger Delta at present gets 13 per cent derivation, which the people feel is unjust. Some want a higher percentage to reflect what was obtainable during the time of the regions, but some  youths demand total resource control so that the states can pay appropriate taxes to the federal government. They argue that the North is probably scared about this as some states in the North have limited internally generated revenue and depend 100 per cent on the federal allocation. That is why MEND called them “parasites” last week in response to their insistence that the Niger Delta  states already have too much. The proposed summit will not have the power to deliberate on this and will, therefore, fall short of the expectations of the people.

However, the magazine’s investigation indicates that the summit, if and when it finally holds, may not provide anything more than a rehash of the Niger Delta master plan, which was completed by the Obasanjo administration. The master plan, which has been widely accepted by all the stakeholders in the Niger Delta and development partners, was presented to the Yar’Adua government on his assumption of office. It provides for all the variables the planned summit sets to achieve and stipulates a joint development project where there will be no duplication of roles and efforts. The local, state and federal governments, oil companies and multilateral agencies have defined roles to play in the implementation.

The civil society’s input into the master plan is good governance, which they were mandated to monitor. This is supposed to take care of the issues of corruption and irresponsibility of governments and agencies, which the proposed summit sets as its prime targets. All that was left for the master plan to take off was the political will which the federal government should provide. Festus Porbeni, retired admiral and chairman of the South-south committee of the National Think-Tank, an advocacy group, told TELL  last week that his group was doing all it can to rein in the warring militants and ensure peace for businesses to return and thrive in the Niger Delta but that the government must provide the political will. It was hoped that, as Yar’Adua said he would make a difference in six months, he would commence the implementation of the master plan and build on the foundation laid by the previous administration, but this did not happen.
There are insinuations in certain quarters in the region that  Yar’Adua is reluctant to execute the master plan so that Obasanjo does not take credit for whatever is achieved using the plan. But leaders in the region are suspicious that  this is incidental to the northern agenda for which Yar’Adua appears ready to risk another civil war.
Considering the time it took to package the current master plan, the Niger Delta people strongly believe that the summit is nothing but a calculated strategy by Yar’Adua to pretend that his government is doing something. They feel that he should introduce a marshal plan for the development of the Niger Delta.
There are grave implications for Yar’Adua’s present formlessness in the Niger Delta for Nigeria. The worst scenario is a civil war. Already, Yar’Adua has ordered the military to fish out the militants that attacked Bonga. That looks like a tall order, for nothing short of a civil war can smoke the militants out of the creeks where they are worshipped as heroes and freedom fighters.

 A significant number of the soldiers, on the other hand, believe that the militants have a case and are not prepared to fight. And from rumblings across the country, Nigeria will surely not survive another civil war as a country. Emeka Onwuamegbu, a major general and spokesman of the Nigerian Army, said that the defence of Bonga was contracted to a private security company. Two warships have since been sent to guard the facility. All over the Niger Delta, oil is being produced at gunpoint, else the militants will sack them. Companies are folding up and those left are producing under military protection. The roads, streets and byways of Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta states are hampered by sand bags of the JTF. The security votes of the Niger Delta states are now rubbing shoulders with capital expenditure. The question agitating the mind of many people is whether Nigeria will make the group of best 20 economies by the year 2020?

Additional reports by
DAYO AIYETAN and KLEM OFUOKWU