There is a battle within the serene walls of Aso Rock, Nigeria's presidential house. And the contenders are no other than the President and his deputy. In what promises to be one of the most fierce political battles in Nigeria's history, Vice President Atiku Abubakar is standing eyeball-to-eyeball against President Olusegun Obasanjo in the fight for the nation's top job in 2007.Vice President Atiku Abubakar cuts the image of a sedate and unhurried politician. In public, at least, he is largely reticent, giving little, if anything, away. Like members of the Italian Mafia, he prefers to be a lamb rather than a wolf. For long, this approach worked, enabling him catch opponents unawares. But the method has its own limitations and Atiku has since realised that in the cranky world of Nigerian politics, the approach has a wide error margin.
In the hours leading to the 2003 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) convention and presidential primaries, in which President Olusegun Obasanjo needed the party’s mandate for a second term in office, Atiku was prevailed upon by his backers, including some state governors, to run against his boss. Buoyed by the support, Atiku picked a form, indicating his desire to run against Obasanjo. This development shocked Obasanjo and rendered him unsteady. More than these, it engendered a feeling of humiliation.
Atiku changed his mind and allowed Obasanjo another free bite of the presidential cherry. To close watchers of Nigerian politics, Atiku’s capitulation was a fatal step. A political scientist, who spoke with TheNEWS, said: “What Atiku did amounted to a boxer refusing to deliver the knockout blow even with his opponent groggy and his back to the rope.”
With Obasanjo’s legendary penchant not to forgive, particularly personal injuries, vengeance was sure to follow. It came sooner than most anticipated. Immediately after the pair got re-elected in May, the President began to make Atiku pay for his “indiscretion.”
And it kicked off with the battle to instal the Speaker of the House of Representatives. In the battle to instal the Speaker, Dr. Usman Bugaje, an Atiku loyalist, was frozen out by Obasanjo who threw his weight behind Aminu Bello Masari.
But the assault on Atiku was just beginning. Next up was the plot to chisel off some of Atiku’s powers. This began when Obasanjo contrived the idea of a single presidency, merging his office with that of his deputy. With this done, the budget of the Vice President got subsumed under the budget of the President. Aides of the Vice President could not travel because funding had to be approved. Most of the time they were not approved because the strategy was to stifle the VP’s political machinery.
The President moved up a notch by sacking in quick succession eight aides of the Vice President, sometimes without informing the VP. Those sacked were Professor Sam Oyovbaire, General Jafaru Isa, Chris Mammah, Onukaba Adinoyi-Ojo, Malam Garba Shehu, Dr. Adeola Akande and Mr. Chima Ayati. For those sacked, their “crimes” were one and the same: loyalty to their boss. Yet, there was no let-up in the humiliation and persecution of the Vice President. As the nation’s number two man, Atiku is for the most part left out of decision making. Sources said Obasanjo built a roped square of confidants. And, naturally, Atiku was outside it.
But there was more. The mother of them all came in November 2005, when Abdul Yari, a Chief Superintendent of Police (CSP) and Aide-de-camp to the VP, was sacked over charges of ‘cumulative implicating security reports.’ Almost immediately, the Federal Government instituted a panel to probe the activities of INTELS Nigeria Limited, a Ports Management firm in which Atiku has substantial interest. The firm was suspended from operations at the Onne Lighter Terminal, Port Harcourt, Rivers State.
Several occasions, including when he addressed the joint session of the National Assembly, in clear breach of protocol, Obasanjo did not acknowledge Atiku’s presence. Ministers brought into government by Atiku, like Funke Adedoyin and Bala Mande, were sacked. The President also took over the decision making organ of the PDP, effectively forcing out the VP’s men through their non-elective congress, which a court declared illegal. In the attempts to diminish him politically, Atiku saw evil, but spoke of none.
But his patience was not limitless. A sneak preview of this was provided on 25 August 2005, in an interview with ThisDay, a Lagos-based newspaper. In the interview, Atiku said Obasanjo swore to him that he will quit office in 2007. He also said he believed Obasanjo and since he has been serving the President loyally, the question of not getting Obasanjo’s support for his latent presidential bid was needless. Atiku’s claims did not generate immediate interest. But unknown to many, the simulated cordiality between the two men was on the verge of going up in smoke.
During the August 2005 edition of the Presidential Media Chat on national television, the President exploded. “I think the Vice President got it wrong there. For what reason would I swear? Even when I discovered that there were proven cases of doubtful loyalty on his part, I brought out a Bible and a Qu’ran. And I said between us, let us swear because we should not have a divided house. He refused to. Why?” Obasanjo fumed.
Atiku’s response, though low-octane, carried sufficient barbs. It was delivered via his address at the 2005 Leadership Awards/ Lecture organised by TheWeek magazine. “Few days ago, Nigerians came out to protest the hike in the prices of petroleum products. They need someone to listen to them and the government should listen. This event is taking place in a country that has for long time lacked a critical ingredient for development – good leadership of course,” Atiku jibed. Then the clincher: “We have had political leaders all these years, but for most of our history, we have not had good leadership.
When a country has abundant human material resources but still wobbles, it is clear that it has not had good leadership,” he concluded. For reasons yet unknown, Obasanjo failed to rise up to the bait and things remained quiet–publicly. But on Thursday 6 April 2006, the embers of the presidential feud were fanned all over again. This time, they cackled. That day, during a meeting of Movement 2007, an amalgam of groups opposed to the third agenda, the Vice President was unequivocal in condemning Obasanjo’s third term bid.
He said the agenda was real and urged his listeners, including former House of Representatives Speaker, Ghali Umar Na’Abba and National Assembly members, to resist it. “What better testimony, what better evidence do we need that this is a real agenda? Let us step up this campaign, let us step up the lobby among other members of the National Assembly...Let’s keep on campaigning to our brothers and sisters. Because as long as the numbers keep increasing, they will never bring their bill to the National Assembly,” he said.
The following day, Atiku raised the stakes by declaring his interest in the 2007 presidential race with a pledge to build on the success of the current administration. Atiku, who made the declaration through his media consultant, Malam Garba Shehu, declared: “The Vice President is determined to run for the presidency in 2007 and the basis of his declaration is of a new vision for a united, prosperous and peaceful Nigeria. The Vice President believes he is the most qualified to run for this office, having been Vice President for seven years and now going to eight years.”
Atiku’s condemnatory remarks about the third term agenda, threw the Obasanjo camp into anger. Femi Fani-Kayode, the voluble presidential spokesman, called on Atiku to resign his position. From the home front came another attack, not unexpected. Rising from a hurriedly convened meeting, the PDP exco in Adamawa State threatened to expel the Vice President for daring to confront the President. Musa Kamale, Publicity Secretary, declared that the party will not fold its arms and watch Atiku go scot-free in his confrontation with Obasanjo. Chiding Atiku for committing a plethora of anti-party activities, Kamale asked the Vice President to resign before it becomes too late.
But Atiku’s supporters rose in defence of their boss, insisting that the VP would not be stampeded out of the presidency or the PDP, which he has contributed so much to develop. Even outside the PDP, support came. Senator Saidu Dansadau, a member of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) from Zamfara State, said: “If PDP is contemplating punishing Atiku for taking a position on this matter, it must punish Ahmadu Ali, the National Chairman; it must punish Chief Tony Anenih, it must as well punish pro-third term governors. I don’t think the constitution of the PDP is meant only for Atiku to obey. The outburst of PDP is typical of its principle of selectivity in the administration of justice. What the PDP is attempting to do is illegal and unconstitutional.”
Professor Tam David-West, former Minister of Petroleum, also backed Atiku. “If Atiku resigns, it shows that he is a coward and cannot stand to fight when the need arises. He is therefore not fit to be a leader,” he opined. Quoting Albert Camus’ immutable statement on courage, David-West added: “It is better to stand on your feet than to lead on your knees.” But the bid to stop Atiku moved from polemics to the war front when angry youths, believed to have been inspired by Obasanjo, staged a protest at the Lagos residence of the Vice President and at the presidential wing of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos.
Numbering about 400, the pro- third term activists, led by Muyiwa Collins, Publicity Secretary of the PDP in Lagos State, stormed the main gate of the presidential lounge in a convoy of four molue buses. Despite violating airport security regulations which prohibit commercial vehicles from entering the airport, the third term activists enjoyed a free reign, displaying anti-Atiku placards and hurling insults at the VP. Atiku was taken out of harm’s way when security men took him through the nearby Air Force Base en route the presidential tarmac. Earlier in the day a group of protesters, in similar fashion, barricaded the Osborne Road junction leading to Atiku’s residence in Ikoyi. The prompt intervention of policemen prevented the mob from gaining entry to Atiku’s home. The attacks, the magazine gathered, embarrassed Obasanjo, who later phoned Atiku to register his concern.
Obasanjo was said to have asked about Atiku’s welfare. Atiku assured Obasanjo that he was fine and that his life was not in danger during the protest. Atiku was said to have told his boss that the protesters never hurled missiles at him, maintaining that it was an ordinary demonstration which is consistent with the principles of modern democracy. Confirming the development, Garba Shehu, Atiku’s aide, told newsmen that the VP was not embarrassed by the development. “He freely waved at them. His wish was that all those opposed to third term will similarly be allowed the freedom to openly express their disagreement,” Garba said.
Atiku and his supporters are bent on not only proceeding with elaborate plans to frustrate Obasanjo’s plan to get a third term in office, but also working hard to ensure that he becomes president. The main battle field for both men and their foot soldiers is the National Assembly. The Atiku group is working on the lawmakers, impressing upon them the need to stand firm and ensure that the third term bill fails. TheNEWS gathered that the Atiku group is counting on the Vice President’s inter-personal relationship with many of the lawmakers to ensure that the third term is frustrated.
“They need 240 in the House of Representatives. They need 73 in the Senate. We have 121 in the House of Reps and 37 in the Senate to stop it. That is what we are working on and we have assurances that we will get more than the figure needed to stop Obasanjo’s evil agenda,” an Atiku aide told TheNEWS last week in Abuja.
The Vice President has also budgeted a large chunk of his life’s savings to stop the third term bid. Indeed, during the Movement 2007 meeting in Abuja, Atiku said: “I want to assure you that I am always available and I will give you any support that you need.” This, as an Atiku aide told TheNEWS, underlines VP’s desire to spend whatever is required to ensure that the third term bill does not survive on the floor of National Assembly.
Though the Atiku group reckons that it cannot outspend the presidency which can even tempt lawmakers with oil blocs, it has planted moles in the various caucuses of the Senate and House of Representatives, which have made it difficult for the President’s agents to give out money even when they successfully mobilise federal legislators to a meeting. For example, at a recent meeting with lawmakers, held at Abuja’s Chelsea Hotel, Chief Tony Anenih refrained from distributing money to the federal lawmakers after he saw some “unfriendly” faces in attendance.
On Tuesday 11 April, the same Anenih, who is the Chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees, met House of Representatives members from Zamfara State at his residence on Samora Machel Street, Asokoro. He was said to have told them to support the third term bid and assured them that the presidency will ensure their return to the House during the next elections. He was also said to have promised them plots of land in Abuja. When the legislators asked how they would be returned to their seats, Anenih promised them huge sums of money and pledged that he would prevail on PDP not to present candidates against those from other parties.
Shortly after this encounter with Anenih, the Atiku camp was briefed about what transpired at the meeting. It is the vigilance on the part of the group that is making things difficult for the President’s foot soldiers, forcing them to change tactics. “It is literally impossible to give money to lawmakers in Abuja because all eyes are on them. The VP’s men are all over the place,” a top politician told TheNEWS last Friday. This magazine gathered that state governors sympathetic to the third term agenda have been asked to give money to legislators from their states, given the difficulty being experienced in Abuja.
However, Atiku’s options are wider. He has also started consultations with groups like the Arewa Consultative Forum, Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo and civil society groups. Apart from these, close aides volunteered to TheNEWS that every day, Atiku, Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Mohammed Buhari talk on the phone on the need to sustain the pressure and make sure the third term agenda fails. The Vice President was also said to have declared that he is ready to sacrifice his ambition to rule Nigeria so that democracy can reign in the land. As far as the Vice President is concerned, third term equates life presidency.
“When the constitution is amended, it means Nigeria will have a life president. I urge all Nigerians to strongly and vehemently resist it,” Atiku said while addressing his supporters in Yola, adding that “if good performance in office was the yardstick for the alteration of the constitution to elongate the tenure of the incumbent, United States of America would have changed its constitution ten times in favour of people like Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.” Atiku is fighting for his political life, according to an aide. “He knows that if the President uses the National Assembly to secure a third term for himself, he could as well use the same Assembly to get him sacked as Vice President, so he is bent on stopping the third term bid,” he explained.
Atiku’s strategists are also reaching out to governors to help frustrate the third term plan. However, they are not sure of the governors’ support, given the fact that they could be easily blackmailed. Apart from flooding major Nigerian cities with the Vice President’s campaign posters in the last one week to “underline our seriousness,” the Atiku camp believes that well laid out delay tactics could frustrate Obasanjo’s third term plan, before elections hold in November.
The House of Representatives has gone on break for two weeks and will reconvene on 25 April. When members return, they will host the Japanese President who will address a joint session of the National Assembly. So the earliest date they can possibly start debating the third term bill is on 2 May. But the National Assembly is going on legislative break in June, which might last for a month. Yet, it might not be possible to give it accelerated hearing because the issue is a contentious one, needing absolute majority to carry out an accelerated hearing. “In a situation where you have about 80 percent, you can talk of fast-tracking it, but the case here is a contentious one. The voting pattern for the Mantu case is a test case of this and they don’t have absolute majority,” an Atiku aide declared.
Indeed, time is not on the side of the third term campaigners. Though the bill has just been presented to the Senate, the House of Representatives has not even started considering it, as the House is still deliberating on the Electoral Act, which sources said, they will not brush aside in favour of constitutional amendment for the sake of giving Obasanjo a third term in office. Sources told TheNEWS that Atiku intends to frustrate President Obasanjo by remaining in the PDP to slug it out with him. He is said to believe that it would be improper for him to abandon the party to a usurper.
“It pains the VP who has so much interest in the party to see the party the way it is now. It is when they kick him out or deny him a ticket that he will think of what next to do. When they act we will react. Strategically, the VP will lose a lot if he walks away from the PDP. Many people with conscience still think the party can be salvaged,” said Garba Shehu, Atiku’s media consultant. Dr. Laolu Akande, an aide of the Vice President noted that the fact that Atiku is keen about stopping the third term bid is because Nigerians are overwhelmingly against it. According to him, starting from the opinion poll conducted by The Punch, no opinion poll conducted has returned less than 80 percent opposition to the third term agenda.
“Onyema Ugochukwu contracted Segun Ilori’s Public Opinion Bureau to conduct an Opinion Poll and by their own survey, 81 per cent of Nigerians are opposed to third term and that was why they couldn’t release it. SSS had an opinion poll and 89 per cent of Nigerians were opposed to it. Even the one conducted by Afrobarometer has not less than 80 percent of Nigerians opposing third term,” he contended.
Atiku is keen about selling himself as a candidate acceptable to Christians and Muslims. In the coming days, he intends to speak with the leadership of Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), telling them he is a candidate they can trust. He is also reaching out to the International Community, especially the United States.
Apart from investing in America, Atiku is also hoping to exploit his marriage to ex-broadcaster, Jennifer (now Jemila), who works for a lobby group in the United States. Through the ABTI American University established by him, Atiku hopes to court American support by modelling it after the American University in Egypt. By spending his vacation frequently in the US, Atiku has continued to make influential friends in the United States.
While the Vice President’s mind is definitely made up on contesting in 2007, observers fear that he may discontinue the economic reform programme of the Obasanjo administration. Indeed, ensuring continuity in the economic reform programme is the major reason given by those clamouring for the extension of Obasanjo’s tenure.
Supporters of Atiku who spoke to TheNEWS, however, said there would not be reversal in the ongoing economic reforms.
According to them, Atiku, as President, will take the economic reforms to greater heights. This assertion is based on their claim that the Vice President is the brain behind the reforms, directly or indirectly. “Most of the technocrats who have been the vanguard of the economic reforms were brought into the government one way or the other by Vice President Atiku Abubakar. He brought Malam Nasir el-Rufai into government. El-Rufai found Soludo and made him consultant to the Bureau of Public Enterprises, BPE. Bode Augusto, Kekere-Ekun, Fola Adeola and Okonjo-Iweala were subsequently brought in through the BPE to help in the establishment of the Debt Management Office.
It was after the President discovered the abilities of these technocrats that he started appointing them to the positions they are now occupying,” claimed one of the VP’s supporters. Apart from this, those rooting for an Atiku presidency also contend that the VP has been part of the conception, institutionalisation and execution of the economic reform programme. The first thing the Vice President did after the 2003 election, for instance, they told TheNEWS, was to assemble a team led by renowned economist, Professor Anya. O. Anya, to prepare a blueprint for the revival of the economy.
This is based on the VP’s belief that the administration’s economic reform must be taken some notches higher in their second term. The blueprint was later presented to the President. “Even this morning, (last Wednesday) the Vice President as the Vice Chairman, sat with the President to review issues before the Federal Executive Council, FEC, meeting,” said a supporter of the Vice President. “The VP will still set up a study group to discuss issues of national development.
The economy, job creation, agriculture improvement in power supply and revival of public infrastructure rank as number one on the VP’s mind. I can assure you” he declared. He said Atiku will release his blueprint on how to tackle the various economic problems confronting Nigeria when he presents his manifesto during his formal declaration.
Beyond rhetorics, Atiku has taken steps to actualise his desire to become the president in 2007. Recently Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, former Minister of Industries, has been announced as the Director-General of the Atiku National Campaign Organisation. The 55- year-old politician who played a pivotal role in the 2003 presidential campaign in Benue State, is expected to bring his experience to bear.
The magazine gathered that Ayu, who was also part of Chief MKO Abiola’s Hope ‘93 campaign structure, has started shopping for a suitable accommodation that would serve as campaign headquarters in Abuja. Sources told TheNEWS that two first-class advertising agencies with international affiliations have started working on how to position Atiku as a brand. One of them has been involved in presidential campaigns in 29 countries and 27 of the candidates won. Already, the filming of a 60-second message, to be shown on satellite and terrestrial television, has begun. To ensure easy movement for members of the campaign team, dozens of cars fitted with state-of-the-art communication facilities have been acquired.
Atiku is said to be keen on presenting himself as a detribalised Nigerian. Though not much has been done by him in this regard, aides hint that when he flags off his campaign, the full range of his arsenal would be seen. But among many of Atiku’s most loyal backers, there is some concern about the entry of General Ibrahim Babangida into the presidential race. Despite the baggage of the annulment of the 1993 presidential election and the mismanagement of the nation’s resources, Babangida still enjoys tremendous following in Northern Nigeria. As the last surviving military ruler, he enjoys the support of other retired generals, most of whom are rich and influential, especially with the traditional institutions.
The traditional institutions wield immense political influence in northern Nigeria. During the Babangida era, the Emirs were pampered and this may be the time to repay him. To many of these Emirs, Babangida would be the natural choice if he were running against Atiku.
Besides, not many Northerners have forgotten how Vice President Atiku came to attack northern leaders during a function at Arewa House in Kaduna, a few years ago. Atiku lashed at Northerners who were criticising Obasanjo for the President’s perceived marginalisation of the North.
“When the north wanted to deal with Obasanjo for betraying the north by sacking some of its most promising sons in the military, it was Atiku who went round begging for him. Though he is getting a lot of sympathy these days on account of the mistreatment by Obasanjo, many of us think his current burden is self-inflicted,” said a top northern politician. The odds against Atiku are many. But it is the same for Babangida and the third term-seeking Obasanjo.
In the hours leading to the 2003 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) convention and presidential primaries, in which President Olusegun Obasanjo needed the party’s mandate for a second term in office, Atiku was prevailed upon by his backers, including some state governors, to run against his boss. Buoyed by the support, Atiku picked a form, indicating his desire to run against Obasanjo. This development shocked Obasanjo and rendered him unsteady. More than these, it engendered a feeling of humiliation.
Atiku changed his mind and allowed Obasanjo another free bite of the presidential cherry. To close watchers of Nigerian politics, Atiku’s capitulation was a fatal step. A political scientist, who spoke with TheNEWS, said: “What Atiku did amounted to a boxer refusing to deliver the knockout blow even with his opponent groggy and his back to the rope.”
With Obasanjo’s legendary penchant not to forgive, particularly personal injuries, vengeance was sure to follow. It came sooner than most anticipated. Immediately after the pair got re-elected in May, the President began to make Atiku pay for his “indiscretion.”
And it kicked off with the battle to instal the Speaker of the House of Representatives. In the battle to instal the Speaker, Dr. Usman Bugaje, an Atiku loyalist, was frozen out by Obasanjo who threw his weight behind Aminu Bello Masari.
But the assault on Atiku was just beginning. Next up was the plot to chisel off some of Atiku’s powers. This began when Obasanjo contrived the idea of a single presidency, merging his office with that of his deputy. With this done, the budget of the Vice President got subsumed under the budget of the President. Aides of the Vice President could not travel because funding had to be approved. Most of the time they were not approved because the strategy was to stifle the VP’s political machinery.
The President moved up a notch by sacking in quick succession eight aides of the Vice President, sometimes without informing the VP. Those sacked were Professor Sam Oyovbaire, General Jafaru Isa, Chris Mammah, Onukaba Adinoyi-Ojo, Malam Garba Shehu, Dr. Adeola Akande and Mr. Chima Ayati. For those sacked, their “crimes” were one and the same: loyalty to their boss. Yet, there was no let-up in the humiliation and persecution of the Vice President. As the nation’s number two man, Atiku is for the most part left out of decision making. Sources said Obasanjo built a roped square of confidants. And, naturally, Atiku was outside it.
But there was more. The mother of them all came in November 2005, when Abdul Yari, a Chief Superintendent of Police (CSP) and Aide-de-camp to the VP, was sacked over charges of ‘cumulative implicating security reports.’ Almost immediately, the Federal Government instituted a panel to probe the activities of INTELS Nigeria Limited, a Ports Management firm in which Atiku has substantial interest. The firm was suspended from operations at the Onne Lighter Terminal, Port Harcourt, Rivers State.
Several occasions, including when he addressed the joint session of the National Assembly, in clear breach of protocol, Obasanjo did not acknowledge Atiku’s presence. Ministers brought into government by Atiku, like Funke Adedoyin and Bala Mande, were sacked. The President also took over the decision making organ of the PDP, effectively forcing out the VP’s men through their non-elective congress, which a court declared illegal. In the attempts to diminish him politically, Atiku saw evil, but spoke of none.
But his patience was not limitless. A sneak preview of this was provided on 25 August 2005, in an interview with ThisDay, a Lagos-based newspaper. In the interview, Atiku said Obasanjo swore to him that he will quit office in 2007. He also said he believed Obasanjo and since he has been serving the President loyally, the question of not getting Obasanjo’s support for his latent presidential bid was needless. Atiku’s claims did not generate immediate interest. But unknown to many, the simulated cordiality between the two men was on the verge of going up in smoke.
During the August 2005 edition of the Presidential Media Chat on national television, the President exploded. “I think the Vice President got it wrong there. For what reason would I swear? Even when I discovered that there were proven cases of doubtful loyalty on his part, I brought out a Bible and a Qu’ran. And I said between us, let us swear because we should not have a divided house. He refused to. Why?” Obasanjo fumed.
Atiku’s response, though low-octane, carried sufficient barbs. It was delivered via his address at the 2005 Leadership Awards/ Lecture organised by TheWeek magazine. “Few days ago, Nigerians came out to protest the hike in the prices of petroleum products. They need someone to listen to them and the government should listen. This event is taking place in a country that has for long time lacked a critical ingredient for development – good leadership of course,” Atiku jibed. Then the clincher: “We have had political leaders all these years, but for most of our history, we have not had good leadership.
When a country has abundant human material resources but still wobbles, it is clear that it has not had good leadership,” he concluded. For reasons yet unknown, Obasanjo failed to rise up to the bait and things remained quiet–publicly. But on Thursday 6 April 2006, the embers of the presidential feud were fanned all over again. This time, they cackled. That day, during a meeting of Movement 2007, an amalgam of groups opposed to the third agenda, the Vice President was unequivocal in condemning Obasanjo’s third term bid.
He said the agenda was real and urged his listeners, including former House of Representatives Speaker, Ghali Umar Na’Abba and National Assembly members, to resist it. “What better testimony, what better evidence do we need that this is a real agenda? Let us step up this campaign, let us step up the lobby among other members of the National Assembly...Let’s keep on campaigning to our brothers and sisters. Because as long as the numbers keep increasing, they will never bring their bill to the National Assembly,” he said.
The following day, Atiku raised the stakes by declaring his interest in the 2007 presidential race with a pledge to build on the success of the current administration. Atiku, who made the declaration through his media consultant, Malam Garba Shehu, declared: “The Vice President is determined to run for the presidency in 2007 and the basis of his declaration is of a new vision for a united, prosperous and peaceful Nigeria. The Vice President believes he is the most qualified to run for this office, having been Vice President for seven years and now going to eight years.”
Atiku’s condemnatory remarks about the third term agenda, threw the Obasanjo camp into anger. Femi Fani-Kayode, the voluble presidential spokesman, called on Atiku to resign his position. From the home front came another attack, not unexpected. Rising from a hurriedly convened meeting, the PDP exco in Adamawa State threatened to expel the Vice President for daring to confront the President. Musa Kamale, Publicity Secretary, declared that the party will not fold its arms and watch Atiku go scot-free in his confrontation with Obasanjo. Chiding Atiku for committing a plethora of anti-party activities, Kamale asked the Vice President to resign before it becomes too late.
But Atiku’s supporters rose in defence of their boss, insisting that the VP would not be stampeded out of the presidency or the PDP, which he has contributed so much to develop. Even outside the PDP, support came. Senator Saidu Dansadau, a member of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) from Zamfara State, said: “If PDP is contemplating punishing Atiku for taking a position on this matter, it must punish Ahmadu Ali, the National Chairman; it must punish Chief Tony Anenih, it must as well punish pro-third term governors. I don’t think the constitution of the PDP is meant only for Atiku to obey. The outburst of PDP is typical of its principle of selectivity in the administration of justice. What the PDP is attempting to do is illegal and unconstitutional.”
Professor Tam David-West, former Minister of Petroleum, also backed Atiku. “If Atiku resigns, it shows that he is a coward and cannot stand to fight when the need arises. He is therefore not fit to be a leader,” he opined. Quoting Albert Camus’ immutable statement on courage, David-West added: “It is better to stand on your feet than to lead on your knees.” But the bid to stop Atiku moved from polemics to the war front when angry youths, believed to have been inspired by Obasanjo, staged a protest at the Lagos residence of the Vice President and at the presidential wing of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos.
Numbering about 400, the pro- third term activists, led by Muyiwa Collins, Publicity Secretary of the PDP in Lagos State, stormed the main gate of the presidential lounge in a convoy of four molue buses. Despite violating airport security regulations which prohibit commercial vehicles from entering the airport, the third term activists enjoyed a free reign, displaying anti-Atiku placards and hurling insults at the VP. Atiku was taken out of harm’s way when security men took him through the nearby Air Force Base en route the presidential tarmac. Earlier in the day a group of protesters, in similar fashion, barricaded the Osborne Road junction leading to Atiku’s residence in Ikoyi. The prompt intervention of policemen prevented the mob from gaining entry to Atiku’s home. The attacks, the magazine gathered, embarrassed Obasanjo, who later phoned Atiku to register his concern.
Obasanjo was said to have asked about Atiku’s welfare. Atiku assured Obasanjo that he was fine and that his life was not in danger during the protest. Atiku was said to have told his boss that the protesters never hurled missiles at him, maintaining that it was an ordinary demonstration which is consistent with the principles of modern democracy. Confirming the development, Garba Shehu, Atiku’s aide, told newsmen that the VP was not embarrassed by the development. “He freely waved at them. His wish was that all those opposed to third term will similarly be allowed the freedom to openly express their disagreement,” Garba said.
Atiku and his supporters are bent on not only proceeding with elaborate plans to frustrate Obasanjo’s plan to get a third term in office, but also working hard to ensure that he becomes president. The main battle field for both men and their foot soldiers is the National Assembly. The Atiku group is working on the lawmakers, impressing upon them the need to stand firm and ensure that the third term bill fails. TheNEWS gathered that the Atiku group is counting on the Vice President’s inter-personal relationship with many of the lawmakers to ensure that the third term is frustrated.
“They need 240 in the House of Representatives. They need 73 in the Senate. We have 121 in the House of Reps and 37 in the Senate to stop it. That is what we are working on and we have assurances that we will get more than the figure needed to stop Obasanjo’s evil agenda,” an Atiku aide told TheNEWS last week in Abuja.
The Vice President has also budgeted a large chunk of his life’s savings to stop the third term bid. Indeed, during the Movement 2007 meeting in Abuja, Atiku said: “I want to assure you that I am always available and I will give you any support that you need.” This, as an Atiku aide told TheNEWS, underlines VP’s desire to spend whatever is required to ensure that the third term bill does not survive on the floor of National Assembly.
Though the Atiku group reckons that it cannot outspend the presidency which can even tempt lawmakers with oil blocs, it has planted moles in the various caucuses of the Senate and House of Representatives, which have made it difficult for the President’s agents to give out money even when they successfully mobilise federal legislators to a meeting. For example, at a recent meeting with lawmakers, held at Abuja’s Chelsea Hotel, Chief Tony Anenih refrained from distributing money to the federal lawmakers after he saw some “unfriendly” faces in attendance.
On Tuesday 11 April, the same Anenih, who is the Chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees, met House of Representatives members from Zamfara State at his residence on Samora Machel Street, Asokoro. He was said to have told them to support the third term bid and assured them that the presidency will ensure their return to the House during the next elections. He was also said to have promised them plots of land in Abuja. When the legislators asked how they would be returned to their seats, Anenih promised them huge sums of money and pledged that he would prevail on PDP not to present candidates against those from other parties.
Shortly after this encounter with Anenih, the Atiku camp was briefed about what transpired at the meeting. It is the vigilance on the part of the group that is making things difficult for the President’s foot soldiers, forcing them to change tactics. “It is literally impossible to give money to lawmakers in Abuja because all eyes are on them. The VP’s men are all over the place,” a top politician told TheNEWS last Friday. This magazine gathered that state governors sympathetic to the third term agenda have been asked to give money to legislators from their states, given the difficulty being experienced in Abuja.
However, Atiku’s options are wider. He has also started consultations with groups like the Arewa Consultative Forum, Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo and civil society groups. Apart from these, close aides volunteered to TheNEWS that every day, Atiku, Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Mohammed Buhari talk on the phone on the need to sustain the pressure and make sure the third term agenda fails. The Vice President was also said to have declared that he is ready to sacrifice his ambition to rule Nigeria so that democracy can reign in the land. As far as the Vice President is concerned, third term equates life presidency.
“When the constitution is amended, it means Nigeria will have a life president. I urge all Nigerians to strongly and vehemently resist it,” Atiku said while addressing his supporters in Yola, adding that “if good performance in office was the yardstick for the alteration of the constitution to elongate the tenure of the incumbent, United States of America would have changed its constitution ten times in favour of people like Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.” Atiku is fighting for his political life, according to an aide. “He knows that if the President uses the National Assembly to secure a third term for himself, he could as well use the same Assembly to get him sacked as Vice President, so he is bent on stopping the third term bid,” he explained.
Atiku’s strategists are also reaching out to governors to help frustrate the third term plan. However, they are not sure of the governors’ support, given the fact that they could be easily blackmailed. Apart from flooding major Nigerian cities with the Vice President’s campaign posters in the last one week to “underline our seriousness,” the Atiku camp believes that well laid out delay tactics could frustrate Obasanjo’s third term plan, before elections hold in November.
The House of Representatives has gone on break for two weeks and will reconvene on 25 April. When members return, they will host the Japanese President who will address a joint session of the National Assembly. So the earliest date they can possibly start debating the third term bill is on 2 May. But the National Assembly is going on legislative break in June, which might last for a month. Yet, it might not be possible to give it accelerated hearing because the issue is a contentious one, needing absolute majority to carry out an accelerated hearing. “In a situation where you have about 80 percent, you can talk of fast-tracking it, but the case here is a contentious one. The voting pattern for the Mantu case is a test case of this and they don’t have absolute majority,” an Atiku aide declared.
Indeed, time is not on the side of the third term campaigners. Though the bill has just been presented to the Senate, the House of Representatives has not even started considering it, as the House is still deliberating on the Electoral Act, which sources said, they will not brush aside in favour of constitutional amendment for the sake of giving Obasanjo a third term in office. Sources told TheNEWS that Atiku intends to frustrate President Obasanjo by remaining in the PDP to slug it out with him. He is said to believe that it would be improper for him to abandon the party to a usurper.
“It pains the VP who has so much interest in the party to see the party the way it is now. It is when they kick him out or deny him a ticket that he will think of what next to do. When they act we will react. Strategically, the VP will lose a lot if he walks away from the PDP. Many people with conscience still think the party can be salvaged,” said Garba Shehu, Atiku’s media consultant. Dr. Laolu Akande, an aide of the Vice President noted that the fact that Atiku is keen about stopping the third term bid is because Nigerians are overwhelmingly against it. According to him, starting from the opinion poll conducted by The Punch, no opinion poll conducted has returned less than 80 percent opposition to the third term agenda.
“Onyema Ugochukwu contracted Segun Ilori’s Public Opinion Bureau to conduct an Opinion Poll and by their own survey, 81 per cent of Nigerians are opposed to third term and that was why they couldn’t release it. SSS had an opinion poll and 89 per cent of Nigerians were opposed to it. Even the one conducted by Afrobarometer has not less than 80 percent of Nigerians opposing third term,” he contended.
Atiku is keen about selling himself as a candidate acceptable to Christians and Muslims. In the coming days, he intends to speak with the leadership of Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), telling them he is a candidate they can trust. He is also reaching out to the International Community, especially the United States.
Apart from investing in America, Atiku is also hoping to exploit his marriage to ex-broadcaster, Jennifer (now Jemila), who works for a lobby group in the United States. Through the ABTI American University established by him, Atiku hopes to court American support by modelling it after the American University in Egypt. By spending his vacation frequently in the US, Atiku has continued to make influential friends in the United States.
While the Vice President’s mind is definitely made up on contesting in 2007, observers fear that he may discontinue the economic reform programme of the Obasanjo administration. Indeed, ensuring continuity in the economic reform programme is the major reason given by those clamouring for the extension of Obasanjo’s tenure.
Supporters of Atiku who spoke to TheNEWS, however, said there would not be reversal in the ongoing economic reforms.
According to them, Atiku, as President, will take the economic reforms to greater heights. This assertion is based on their claim that the Vice President is the brain behind the reforms, directly or indirectly. “Most of the technocrats who have been the vanguard of the economic reforms were brought into the government one way or the other by Vice President Atiku Abubakar. He brought Malam Nasir el-Rufai into government. El-Rufai found Soludo and made him consultant to the Bureau of Public Enterprises, BPE. Bode Augusto, Kekere-Ekun, Fola Adeola and Okonjo-Iweala were subsequently brought in through the BPE to help in the establishment of the Debt Management Office.
It was after the President discovered the abilities of these technocrats that he started appointing them to the positions they are now occupying,” claimed one of the VP’s supporters. Apart from this, those rooting for an Atiku presidency also contend that the VP has been part of the conception, institutionalisation and execution of the economic reform programme. The first thing the Vice President did after the 2003 election, for instance, they told TheNEWS, was to assemble a team led by renowned economist, Professor Anya. O. Anya, to prepare a blueprint for the revival of the economy.
This is based on the VP’s belief that the administration’s economic reform must be taken some notches higher in their second term. The blueprint was later presented to the President. “Even this morning, (last Wednesday) the Vice President as the Vice Chairman, sat with the President to review issues before the Federal Executive Council, FEC, meeting,” said a supporter of the Vice President. “The VP will still set up a study group to discuss issues of national development.
The economy, job creation, agriculture improvement in power supply and revival of public infrastructure rank as number one on the VP’s mind. I can assure you” he declared. He said Atiku will release his blueprint on how to tackle the various economic problems confronting Nigeria when he presents his manifesto during his formal declaration.
Beyond rhetorics, Atiku has taken steps to actualise his desire to become the president in 2007. Recently Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, former Minister of Industries, has been announced as the Director-General of the Atiku National Campaign Organisation. The 55- year-old politician who played a pivotal role in the 2003 presidential campaign in Benue State, is expected to bring his experience to bear.
The magazine gathered that Ayu, who was also part of Chief MKO Abiola’s Hope ‘93 campaign structure, has started shopping for a suitable accommodation that would serve as campaign headquarters in Abuja. Sources told TheNEWS that two first-class advertising agencies with international affiliations have started working on how to position Atiku as a brand. One of them has been involved in presidential campaigns in 29 countries and 27 of the candidates won. Already, the filming of a 60-second message, to be shown on satellite and terrestrial television, has begun. To ensure easy movement for members of the campaign team, dozens of cars fitted with state-of-the-art communication facilities have been acquired.
Atiku is said to be keen on presenting himself as a detribalised Nigerian. Though not much has been done by him in this regard, aides hint that when he flags off his campaign, the full range of his arsenal would be seen. But among many of Atiku’s most loyal backers, there is some concern about the entry of General Ibrahim Babangida into the presidential race. Despite the baggage of the annulment of the 1993 presidential election and the mismanagement of the nation’s resources, Babangida still enjoys tremendous following in Northern Nigeria. As the last surviving military ruler, he enjoys the support of other retired generals, most of whom are rich and influential, especially with the traditional institutions.
The traditional institutions wield immense political influence in northern Nigeria. During the Babangida era, the Emirs were pampered and this may be the time to repay him. To many of these Emirs, Babangida would be the natural choice if he were running against Atiku.
Besides, not many Northerners have forgotten how Vice President Atiku came to attack northern leaders during a function at Arewa House in Kaduna, a few years ago. Atiku lashed at Northerners who were criticising Obasanjo for the President’s perceived marginalisation of the North.
“When the north wanted to deal with Obasanjo for betraying the north by sacking some of its most promising sons in the military, it was Atiku who went round begging for him. Though he is getting a lot of sympathy these days on account of the mistreatment by Obasanjo, many of us think his current burden is self-inflicted,” said a top northern politician. The odds against Atiku are many. But it is the same for Babangida and the third term-seeking Obasanjo.
